ErinInTheSky
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Everything posted by ErinInTheSky
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Agreed. I wouldn't blame nurses from refusing to show up if they aren't given the proper PPE to treat their patients.
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https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12325197 "Covid 19 coronavirus: US nurse 'not given mask to treat patients' found dead at home" The treatment of our health care workers has been terrible in this pandemic. :-/
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County checkpoints are dumb, not going to happen. That's why I think most places are going to follow the model of looking at the general region when making their decisions. Either way we're all sort of armchairing here. As it stands, it doesn't seem like most places are anywhere close to making the decision to reopen. Most places look like they are extending closures.
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Agreed, it seems like a logical and good way of handling it.
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Hence why they have to use regional numbers and god those protests in Michigan. Gonna be in history books for sure.
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Yeah... save for the most isolated localities, it’s hard to believe we’ll be reopening much at all before June 1 and even that seems like a stretch.
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Yeah, it doesn’t seem to follow a normal distribution type of pattern in new cases. The tail seems much longer than expected. I was watching this back in January and this is actually why China used the extreme measures. They could get the cases to stop growing but it was too hard to get the cases back down to zero otherwise.
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Depends on how interconnected the areas are. Borders are porous in the US. Unless they somehow start enforcing county checkpoints. Which seems unlikely but who knows.
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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/15/nyregion/coronavirus-nj-andover-nursing-home-deaths.html the situation in nursing homes is so bad :-/
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Actually the nursing home data is being undercounted, that’s been reported on heavily.
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No, regional numbers decide and I’m sure public health officials are adequately taking the numbers in to make the decision. I was responding to Phineas assertion that many localities can start to reopen right now (a statement of the at large picture) with my own statement of the at large picture (I’m not sure we are at the level yet where we can say many can start to reopen when we are not seeing anything close to that, and instead seeing extensions).
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No, what I am saying is, I’m not sure how you can get to the conclusion that many localities can start to open right now when the reality is, most are moving in the other direction.
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I’m so sorry... stay strong.
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Thousands are dying every day, I’m not sure how that means many localities can start to reopen right now - many public health officials are making the decisions based on regional information. I trust the public health officials will reopen based on the numbers they have.
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Sorry just reread this. I don’t think I ever said Cuomo should be looking at national numbers to reopen NYS.
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I don’t think I’ve asserted that?
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But it probably doesn’t. It probably means social distancing is working. But you seem very invested in the idea that the denominator is something freakishly high and that we are already approaching herd immunity. There’s not a single respected scientist claiming that right now.
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I watched his report yesterday and what his public health expert said was, they take the daily numbers and use it to train the model from the days before.
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I don’t think I ever argued that localities aren’t going to make decisions based on local data. Maybe not as much on a county level yet though, we just don’t have the testing data to do that I don’t think. Even Fauci supports different treatment of different areas.
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Sort of. From what I’ve heard from Cuomo, the daily case counts feed into the model and refine it daily.
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Because what we are doing is working very well.
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It’s what we’ve got to work with for now. I think a lot of the public experts are working with the reality on the ground at this point. Watching Cuomo’s briefings he seems to focus on the things we can verify. Deaths. Hospitalizations. Treatments or lack thereof. Critical patients. Kind of like now casting vs model watching.
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I think there’s a balance to be struck between “the data is limited” and “the data is meaningless”. Most public health experts seem to operate under the first statement whereas you’re really invested in pushing the second.
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The rates are one in a million things that go into their decisions and ultimate goal is to prevent and keep low that number that you call “weeping death numbers and total sadness levels”.
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Honestly it’s a little insulting that you keep calling me and others doom porn fans. I want out. I have a surgery I need and two parents with strong preexisting conditions, I’m deacon for a church I want to return to services with, and I have a kid that has been stuck at home with me while I work. It’s not doom porn. It’s a respect for public health and a trusting of scientists and the science that guides the decision and makes what we are doing right now worth it.
