ErinInTheSky

Yeah, this is my main concern. End lockdowns early and then we're back to where we were, and then we have to lock down again.

Ok. I am thinking about making my first actual "head out and support local business" trip of this pandemic, to a meadery. I have been craving mead for a while. Gonna break out the face masks and make it happen. Edit: and awesome, they have curbside delivery. Fantastic. Doing this now!

I'll be super happy if that happens. I mean that.

I'm just glad I live in a reasonable state like Maryland so we can let the dumb states like Florida and Texas be the testing ground for what opening early looks like for us.

Everyone who wants to get out is frantically clutching at anybody with a title or any statistic that gets posted that tells them this is all for nothing.

The real agenda uncovered.

I’ll say this: Florida reopening beaches may ACTUALLY be a good test of what reopening has on case and death counts and the rest of us states staying closed til May 15 can use it to evaluate!

Sorry Phin got to have some levity. I hope soon we will all be dancing in the sun and it turns out to be nothing like a bad flu season. I’m just not seeing it.

Hehehehe

Phin: Welcome to Whose COVID is it Anyway?, where the case counts are made up and the deaths don’t matter.

For the IHME model to be right, death counts will have to come down very quickly on the back side of this. Just 10 days of 2250 deaths would send it past the projected 60k.

I’m just stunned at the deaths. A week ago I thought we had peaked at 2,000 because we had a few days with less than 2,000 in a row. 2,500 today.

Those Jacksonville beach pictures will be in history books.

@psuhoffman whelp we have our answers on beaches then

Please tell me that’s not real.

I’m not entirely sure. Likely though. I’m glad they are being included now - one of the issues was the death data was harder to track as more people either chose or happened to die at home. Terrible situation in NY. waiting for the PA numbers. They had a very large increase in cases but who knows if it’s just lagged tests. Deaths will be more important to see.

2.221 deaths and many states haven’t reported yet.

Really? I find PSU one of the most reasonable weather posters here...

That seemed obvious. Did he say anything about daycares?

MA/NJ/PA are all having pretty bad weeks. Hopefully Hogan's moves protected us from heading in their direction.

That last bit goes directly against public health guidelines and is bad to promote. It's anti-vaxxer level stuff.

Nah. I've just read way too many scientific reports regarding data findings from back in grad school. It's also kind of funny watching papers get posted to the public pre-review right now. And wild how quickly some are actually getting through review! God I wish my reviews went a tenth as fast back when I was in school.

Just so people are aware, specificity was an important point for the authors of the study to make, because serology test specificity is a major question/problem right now. You can read about the issue here: https://www.360dx.com/infectious-disease/false-positives-could-undermine-utility-sars-cov-2-serology-testing https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/04/16/coronavirus-antibody-blood-tests-reliable-public-health/2981574001/ https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/travis-county-medical-society-warns-of-unreliable-serology-testing/

A few caveats from the study: "We consider our estimate to represent the best available current evidence, but recognize that new information, especially about the test kit performance, could result in updated estimates. For example, if new estimates indicate test specificity to be less than 97.9%, our SARS-CoV-2 prevalence estimate would change from 2.8% to less than 1%, and the lower uncertainty bound of our estimate would include zero." "Other biases, such as bias favoring individuals in good health capable of attending our testing sites, or bias favoring those with prior COVID-like illnesses seeking antibody confirmation are also possible. The overall effect of such biases is hard to ascertain." But it's a good study for sure, the bigger implication is that we have a good, working serological test and hopefully it can be mass produced.

I'm a lot more interested in daycares. Schools were going to close anyway, but daycare availability is what will matter for a lot of people working in the summer.