ErinInTheSky

So this last storm was nice, fun, etc. But I've been here now for I think what, 4 winters now, and it seems like every time we get models showing 12+" of snow, it gets cut down to 3-6" last minute. So my question: Does it ever work the other way around? All the models showing 3-6" of snow in the DC area and instead, we get 12" after a last 48 hours model flip?

Hard to be mad at. 2-6" event on Christmas.

A few tiny flakes in Germantown

Solid 0.25" cartopper. Snow on snow is always lovely. Everything is white and glaciated outside.

3.5" - 12/16. Fun storm, although it didn't hit the early 12+" model runs. 3" of snow, then freezing rain turned to slop, then sleet bomb and snow-crete everywhere. 0.25" - 12/17. Overnight cartopper. 0.5" - 1/25. Just a normal snow, some crusty freezing rain on top. 7" - 1/31 to 2/2. Long duration event. Model runs showed 2'+, but on day of event, they showed 10". I got 2" the first day, and almost nothing the second day. I was feeling pretty despondent and forecasts looked like they would bust. Then on the third day when I wrote it all off, boom. Line set up right over me and dropped 5 more inches. I loved it. Went sledding, built snowmen. Still, I would like to get my thumps up front, it was way to stressful a storm. 1" - 2/7 Absolute slop. Forecast for 3-6" and got 1". It mostly rained but when it snowed, it came down in huge parachutes that instantly melted. Everything turned into a slurry outside. 2" - 2/11. Cute overnight show. Forecast was for 4-6, got 2". But it wasn't as stressful as the other times, as it was overnight, everything was white in the morning with a little snow still falling. 2.5" - 2/18. SLEET BOMB! My favorite kind of storm. Hugged the NAM this time and thank god I did. Models showed 8" for my back yard, NAM was consistently showing 2.5" of straight sleet and 2.5" is what I got. Insanely heavy stuff, doesn't compact easily, doesn't melt quickly. 0.5" - 2/22. Just a nice little refresher coat for the glaciated sleet bomb. Total: 16.25"

Tracking this one in Germantown is fun. The margins between mix and 4” and colossal smashing 18” all cut within miles of me.

Euro isn't disaster on the back end.

I'm a kid in a candy store right now y'all. Like, I moved here in 2016. All but one of my winters has been <12" total. I have never experienced a legitimate, shut everything down snowstorm in my life. My divorce is on Wednesday. I've been waiting for it to go through for 2 years. The custody decision will happen via zoom Wednesday. If Wednesday is the day I finally get my snowstorm, I may get custody of my child and then my first major winter storm on the same day.

GFS and Euro are almost identical right now at 120h in terms of total snowfall. I'm so hopeful this pans out, I really want my first legitimate snow storm since moving here in 2016. Maybe this is the year.

Here's some tasty Kuchera

Oh my god, am I going to experience my first real snow storm since moving here in 2016?

First frozen of the year in Germantown. Snow pellets.

Power died and I had no radar access for 15 min in Germantown.

Southern MoCo storm warned

Oh god it’s hooking so clean right as it heads into bmore.

I’m staring at what looks like a shelf cloud in Germantown.

Waiting for it in Germantown. Can see the CtG.

Interesting velocity sig by Leesburg.

Here we go

WOW this derecho! PDS to Chicago.

This thing looks pretty for the DC crew though.

Omg lol. There is a literal forcefield around me. The storm just phased out of existence, and phased back in to the east of me in Germantown. I'm still entirely dry haha. It's like a repeat of yesterday.

I swear to god if this storm phases south of me in Germantown.... right as it was approaching the southern cell started robbing it.