ErinInTheSky

New York has 20,861 deaths. ".1% and .5%" do not mean the same thing. And the true IFR range is 0.5% - 1.1%. Multiple studies have now confirmed.

The IFR between 0.5-1% with 13.9% penetrance in NY, the worst hit area, is one of the worst pieces of news all around. It came out at the same time as the Geneva study and a study from late last month showing the same range for the IFR. This means it's 5-10x deadlier on a per-person basis than the flu, and will affect 8-10x more people. Literally using these numbers, you can expect that going the "herd immunity" route would result in 2,000,000+ deaths (and that's without taking into account hospital surging that would occur if you did such). It also shows that stay-at-home has been working, we have NOT reached these worst case scenarios because we have flattened the curve and prevented ourselves from being overwhelmed. If you want to do the math yourself, just take 0.007 and multiply it by whatever area's population you are looking at, then multiply that by 0.85 (herd immunity for a disease that spreads this easily is about 85% of people) and you've got the likely number of minimum deaths from pursuing such a strategy, not counting hospital overwhelming effects of doing such.

This was so sad to read

IHME model got an upward adjustment to 67k. Even that seems low with reopenings coming.

Just... google. I can’t even.

Despite what you hear at the coronavirus briefings... please do not inject disinfectant to cure the coronavirus. My lord.

I am seriously loving Hogan. I was unsure of how to feel about him as I had only recently moved to Maryland when I voted for him, but his management has been top notch.

Yup there are plenty of news stories about it. It's why Hogan didn't announce until the tests were already in the warehouse.

But but but how else can we find stuff to talk about here without rampant speculation?

Geneva study just released shows 0.65 (0.5-1.1%) https://www.hug-ge.ch/medias/communique-presse/seroprevalence-covid-19-premiere-estimation So I think we're finally approaching what the true infection fatality rate of COVID is, somewhere between 0.5% and 1.1%. Many times more than the flu, and with an 85% susceptible population rather than the usual 5-8%, so worse on both the fatality and the transmissibility front by an order of magnitude. Herd immunity (85% catching it) would be 2,000,000+ dead. Not surprisingly, this is where the 2,000,000 number came from - herd immunity if left to spread uninhibited in the USA. This also shows that social distancing measures work and it's a testament to our distancing that we've been able to keep the deaths so low.

Oh yes absolutely. Seroprevalence testing right now is VERY iffy. I read a post from a scientist yesterday that said ALL antibody tests come with a disclaimer "OC43, HKU1, 229E, NL63 coronaviruses may also trigger a positive result". Two of those are basically viruses causing the common cold.

Worldometers and JHU. Both are including "probable deaths" Without ANY probable deaths being classified as COVID, you're still at 0.5%. But many if not most are likely COVID deaths at home, hence why they are reported as "probable". Likewise, many of those being tested have yet to die, which will push the rate up. This yields a range of 0.5-1% IFR, which... is exactly what most studies have reported, and which shows how bad herd immunity really is.

If I remember my Latin, you usually change -us to -i. So Prii.

This study published last month estimated 0.7%, so New York is basically confirming some of this stuff. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext

An IFR of 0.8% by the way is perfectly harmonious with a lot of data out of China and South Korea.

There is so much you can do with this New York data. For instance, if the IFR of the disease is 0.8%, you can anticipate that if 20% of the country gets it (65,600,000), it would lead to 524k deaths. And that's just 20%, not nearly herd immunity.

Yup. This is fascinating. It also shows herd immunity would be pretty brutal for New York. They've had 20,792 casualties at 13.9% positive.

New York numbers were super interesting. They sponsored an antibody study and essentially found 13.9% of the state has antibodies. With 20,792 deaths that comes out to an IFR of 0.8%, though Cuomo said that number is likely to rise as many people who were infected in the last 2 weeks or so will die down the line. But that IFR is about what has been reported in countries that do massive testing. Definitely much much higher than the flu. Herd immunity would require 85% to be infected with an R0 of 5.5, so that would lead to 128k deaths in New York alone if we went through herd immunity. Usual caveats from Cuomo and other studies like this - antibody tests could have false negatives or positives that would change the numbers dramatically, this is just a snapshot taken of people at grocery stores so by definition more willing to go out, and it's only the initial results.

WHOOPS

Dude our government can’t even get tests running, you think they will have an adequately phased in medical coding system where tiers of risky people can come back to work in tiers of different jobs?

People keep saying it’s killed 45k in 2 months. What’s more shocking is it killed 44k in 1 month. A month ago there were only 1k dead.

1,910 deaths and lots left to report evening numbers. I see no way we stop at 60,000.... we’d have to pull back hard on deaths fast.

So here's the real question. If May 15 comes along, and we see that Georgia is just absolutely exploding in cases... then what?

Especially hair salons. Hair salons next week is Georgia level.