ErinInTheSky

THAT picture is clearly a risk... Remember one of the biggest clusters came from spring break travelers.

Hiking was nice, and I did a little cooking today. I've taken up catching up on MCU movies this week.

That's with current measures being maintained too. States reopening make me think that 100-200k death is still well within likelihood.

Good info but there are caveats - China's COVID transmission happened in winter, so you wouldn't expect many outdoor outbreaks.

Hikes, walking, etc are specifically mentioned as exceptions in the stay at home order, so I can see why people are doing it - it's allowed under the rules. But god they have to learn to wear masks and not congregate. There was NO social distancing at the first hiking trail I pulled up to, hence why I left it.

Yeah... don’t go to Annapolis Rock trail in Frederick. I did find that the Weverton Cliffs trail was very isolated though with gorgeous views of the Potomac.

I went to hike my favorite trail thinking I could socially distance. The trailhead is more packed than I’ve ever seen, worse than the Florida beaches. I noped out and am going to a quieter trail.

"The primary gating benchmarks for Maryland are: first, the current hospitalization rate (including the current ICU bed usage rate) for COVID patients; and, second, the number of daily COVID deaths. Deaths are a lagging indicator, so the State’s primary gating metric for this recovery roadmap is the current COVID hospitalization rate. The rate of COVID patients occupying beds is currently our most accurate measure of our ability to slow the spread of this deadly disease in Maryland. However, once testing in the state becomes truly robust, new case rates could also become an effective gating metric in Maryland." https://governor.maryland.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/MD_Strong.pdf

Going hiking today. I know a few trails where I’ll likely not see another soul.

Absolutely.

Owch on the new MD cases. Virginia too. Waiting for updates on deaths.

Yeah. I think we will absolutely see a spike in a couple weeks.

Yeah even though case numbers are going up, what we learned from New York is that positive case numbers are essentially meaningless. More important is positive percentage.

Oof that's a lot of Germantown area hospitals. Crap that's my neck of the woods.

I will consider us recovered and back to work in Maryland when my trip to Winchester weekly during rush hour takes 2 and a half hours again. I can make it in an hour 20 during rush now haha.

Actually the reopening plan seems really good. He says in there that childcare facilities will be examined in phase 2, not phase 1. Phase 2 will be difficult to get to unless phase 1 succeeds. This also says we probably aren’t going to have widespread people working until June given the lack of child care centers.

Good to see. I haven’t had much struggle getting the items I want from Wegmans via Instacart, I’m not lacking for food at all.

While I agree with the thought, I think that when states begin to allow reopening and employers demand employees to go back to work, people won't be left with much of a choice.

] These are great.

I think that is kind of factored in in "how much economic activity returns". But you're right.

Today Georgia reopens. Things to watch: - How much economic activity returns - How much infection rates change in 2 and a half weeks (circle May 12)

Depends on R0. If it's in the 1.2-2.2 range, 60%. If it's in that 5+ range, 85%. Probably somewhere in the middle but at this point it doesn't make a difference, point is it would be much much much worse than it is right now.

Yeah New York's seroprevalence study gave us some of the most interesting news of this entire pandemic. I'll repost what I posted yesterday about it: Including probable deaths, this yields an IFR of about 0.7% (between 0.5%-1%, as some things can drive it up, like many people infected have yet to die, and some can drive it down, like not all probable home covid deaths are covid deaths). This is perfectly harmonious with most research out there. Many studies have shown 0.7% as the true IFR. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext **So this is terrible news for the herd immunity crowd.** Why? If the IFR is 0.7%, let's just say 20% of the country gets infected. 65,600,000 people. That would mean that 459k people would die. That's just at 20%. Herd immunity requires 85%.

And the deaths are from infections 3-5 weeks ago, Cuomo said that the true IFR is likely higher as deaths lag. Continue please.

Nope they upped it.