ErinInTheSky

IHME model has jumped up to 74k projected deaths. And they state that's with lockdowns being maintained.

No. This is a well known demography/quant sociology/stats problem. Lifespan was shorter 100 years ago, yes, but not by that much. There were PLENTY of old people. Here's a really good chart to use: https://www.infoplease.com/us/mortality/life-expectancy-age-1850-2011 You can see how long you could be expected to continue living at any one point in time. So for instance, you could expect to make it to around 65.6 in 1919. If you made it to 40, you were probably making it to 70. Lots of things killed you young back then.

I'm missing general maintenance basically. Dentist, elective surgery, laser hair removal, and my court date getting tossed into oblivion. Hair cut I can handle by myself along with most other things. I have actually enjoyed a break from mass consumerism.

Hey @ldub23. I thought about engaging, but there's a lot there... and we've covered most of this ground already in this thread. You seem like someone who doesn't think the virus is that dangerous to you. That's fine. It's dangerous to a lot of people, and right now our best bet is following good public health guidelines and being careful. <3

You know, I’ve been thinking... are companies going to be better off just staying closed until demand comes back? I can’t imagine turning the lights on is worth it for them financially. In which case that might be awhile....

I hope they consider a second stimulus check. The same issues are going to be here May 1 as they were April 1.

Unfortunately this is going to be a distaster for servers and restaurant workers. I have to imagine they’ll use less staff doing this. Same for businesses that rely on alcohol sales.

Yup something like 70% of filers haven’t received it yet.

Makes sense. I’m personally going to wait 2-3 weeks to transition to whatever new normal happens after they reopen here. That other people are doing the same makes sense to me. Its interesting most places didn’t even open though.

Looks like Georgia's reopening isn't doing much in terms of changing public behavior yet. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/27/us/coronavirus-live.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-coronavirus-national&variant=show&region=MID_MAIN_CONTENT&context=storyline_updates_national#link-38d1ce6b "Georgia’s governor allowed restaurants to open for dine-in service Monday so long as they followed a long set of safety guidelines, but many Atlanta restaurants declined to. One that did reopen was Rocky Mountain Pizza Company, located just across the state from the Georgia Institute of Technology campus. It flung open its doors Monday morning, but as of 12:30 p.m., no one had come to sit down for lunch."

Since we've now got pretty good validation on an IFR of around 0.75%, and we have 56,376 deaths, it's likely we have 7.5M cases. That number may not be that far off.

Good call. Tuesday numbers are often the highest as they catch up on Saturday and Sunday turnarounds. If Tuesday is low, I'd be willing to bet we're not going to be terribly far from phase 1 reopening.

Today looks so far to be pretty good. I'm cautiously optimistic that the deaths situation is improving quite a bit. I say cautiously because I've been tricked by 2-3 day trends before. I feel like we're so close, and I really hope the states opening early don't screw it up for all of us.

You can get a gallon in Frederick http://www.mcclintockdistilling.com/

Of course. I just have stopped giving myself much hope from Sunday reports lol.

Ok this is next on my must make list.

Your first Sunday huh? (Sunday numbers have become something of a joke)

I agree - I got out too! But I can say that I saw lots of no practicing social distancing.

The virus spreads primarily through droplet transmission. Masks catch the droplets. The evidence on not catching it because you're wearing a mask isn't as strong as the evidence of not spreading it while wearing a mask, I'll agree with that. However, because so many people are asymptomatic, widespread mask adoption prevents a huge amount of transmission because people who don't think they are sick but actually are are not out launching viral particles 12-30 feet away. Every country that has gotten COVID under control has widespread mask adoption. I promise, it's worth it.

Agreed. And I promise, fewer stayed home this past weekend. The weather was WAY too good and people were out everywhere. There was even traffic on 270 again.

11%. Very good. The best places in the world have 3-5%. But this is far better than the 20% we've seen lately.

That's a pretty strong bump up in hospitalizations.

I think this is true. My rural friends/family seem to be the ones who feel like "this is all nothing."

Masks shouldn't be controversial at all. Every place that's ever gotten this under control has had widespread mask adoption.

I think the most important thing to realize is... the disease spreads through the gathering of people. The more you can reduce the gathering of people, the more you'll reduce the spread. Pictures like that show exactly how new infections can still take place right now, and it wouldn't surprise me to discover that people that are going to the beaches are going to come down with it 1-2 weeks from now. Not worth the risk IMO. I saw a hiking trail packed with people today, it would have been impossible to social distance. People breathing all over as they pass you by without masks. I turned around and went to a lighter populated trail. This level of congregation is irresponsible IMO.