ErinInTheSky

https://www.washingtonpost.com./local/new-coronavirus-cases-despite-shutdown/2020/04/30/a8e5685e-8566-11ea-878a-86477a724bdb_story.html?carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F28e6cf5%2F5eab2ef5fe1ff654c2c83708%2FYXJlZWQ0NC5sc3VAZ21haWwuY29t%2F8%2F57%2Fee333c6251089c09c108eea02af7d0a1&utm_campaign=wp_afternoon_buzz&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_buzz Very fascinating WaPo article on how transmission is still going on weeks into lockdown. Basically... essential workers, daycares for those workers, taking it home to their families, and general small family/small group transmission. Interestingly there seem to also be people getting infected with no known source of exposure, who have stayed indoors at almost all times and the few times they ventured out, wore masks and were very vigilant.

It's like the wild west out there right now. Health experts citing mid-result collection statistical significance, studies getting cited pre-review, and reviews going through in 24 hours of publication. Peer review these days:

There's another study I posted earlier in this thread a few days ago showing a 30% reduction in transmission as a result of school closures, though it wasn't clear if it was the school closure or the effect of parents staying home to take care of kids. The data is all over the place for sure.

Welcome to the land of studies getting released without peer review.

The one piece of good news that we have right now is that we're not seeing exponential growth, so things are mostly kept at bay. For those who want to reopen, it's not great news right now, but it's a reminder we are staving off something much worse.

IHME model has been way out to lunch for a while. It's not accurately modeling the backside of the curve, and at any rate, reopenings are going to complicate things as well as people getting vigilance fatigue.

The economics are going to make people desperate. This whole situation is just a ticking time bomb on multiple fronts. It's really scary TBH.

Yeah. Trails were packed too. I’m of the opinion that outdoors crowds can be a significant vector. If for no other reason than the indoors interactions that occur leading to those crowds, or people from different households getting together. I don’t think we will be able to hit that 14 day metric as long as this keeps getting more common.

Pennsylvania is testing even less per million than the US average. So when you aren’t testing, the only metrics you can watch on your success or failure is hospitalizations and deaths.

The first announcement made it seem like the reopening would be pretty strong on May 1, but his updated timeline definitely spells out a much slower process than some of the other states that have attempted reopening. Can't find a direct source but I could swear they were talking about it on the news yesterday how Ohio's rollout is slower than expected. (I still think the timeline is ridiculous given that they just had their most deaths ever today and they expect opening offices in 5 days).

Three things I note today. Gilead is promising, but it is aiming to have 1 million treatments by December 2020. It’s going to take a while to ramp up, and the mortality improvement isn’t confirmed yet. It could reduce healthcare demand though as it will mean people require on average 4 fewer hospitalization days. That’s great for capacity. All this is caveated by a successful peer review and replication studies. Secondly... some states are heading into their worst days right now. Ohio pulled back on reopening and it’s clear why - they are surging right now. Thirdly, testing is so much more important now that there is a potential treatment.

It hasn't. Current hospitalizations have been increasing, and today was a fairly substantial increase in current hospitalizations. However, the plateau is part of the reopening plan language released in the pdf a few days ago.

Wegmans actually has had chlorox cleaner a few times lately.

I actually am Irish so that's fine

Very cool. Anything residents can do?

Florida appears to be withholding death data. https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/04/29/florida-medical-examiners-were-releasing-coronavirus-death-data-the-state-made-them-stop/

Everyone always pronounced it wrong anyway. It was Supernova Sky. Not Super Novasky (Super Russian). I surprised more than my fair few people showing up to gatherings, both here and in other forums, without a russian accent.

Name change alert. Novasky is no more

Same. Other data showed that the closures themselves reduced viral transmission by 33% in areas that did staggered closings. This particular tweet refers to a website, not really a study, not sure it's even going for peer review?

Absolutely is. This may raise the timeline to where we are not waiting for a vaccine. Which may make continued lockdowns and social distancing even MORE important given that we may have a treatment much earlier.

Fauci was very careful to say that this "opens the door" to treatments, but it does not mean that this drug will be a treatment.

Fauci just said that the improvement in death rates was not statistically significant. However, it does improve recovery times and that was statistically significant. This is live on CNN right now. What he can say is that it appears that the conclusion is, it is possible to block this virus with a drug. Remdesivir may not be that drug, and further studies are warranted. Remdesivir may end up being a treatment option, but there is uncertainty on if it helps at all with death rates. The best news though is it can direct people to what enzymes need to be blocked.

Lol... The Lancet at the same time releases a study saying that Remdesivir does not work. Things are going to be a little ****y until they sort this out.

Next steps will be mass production and broader tests to see things like does administering it earlier help, are there longer term side effects, are there certain age groups where it's actually harmful or conditions where it's actually harmful, etc. Hopefully we can find something better but at least there's something to try!