ErinInTheSky

Hosptialization rate (at least, in this metric here) is not part of the federal gating guidelines. You can read the 3 gates here: https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/#criteria

Yeah they were going on CNN this morning talking about how Virginia was not on the downslope for federal gating criteria.

Probably if social distancing is reduced. That was the big story this morning, about a model that showed cases doubling if social distancing goes away.

Since we are talking about kids right now, Dr. Schneider is on CNN right now, head of Cohen's Children's Medical Center, is seeing a strong surge in Kawasaki disease in kids associated with previous coronavirus infections. Wish I could share the video. I am concerned that we don't know the longer term effects of catching the virus yet. Everyone's free to make their own determinations but things like this lead me to indeed continue being cautious with my kiddo.

I've been going on hikes with mine and identifying plants and bugs and lots of Facetime. It's been a good compromise.

I get why businesses might have trouble getting customers... I mean I'm kind of personally hoping that my son's daycare does not open soon because I'm getting used to paying less money for it and I don't want to have to make the decision to send my baby into a pandemic. I know it doesn't affect kids as hard but the last thing I want is for him to get sick, I have no idea the long term effects of this thing, I'd hate for him to carry it, etc. So I mean having trouble with something as generally normally essential as a daycare, there's no way on earth I'm going to the mall or sitting in a restaurant right now.

I don't know where you are getting glee from. I'm trapped in my home just like everyone else. I'm just stating the fact that there are a lot of people who think that you're going to open up and then bam, economy's fine and the virus will go away when in reality, it's likely going to happen the opposite way.

Georgia is still dead. This goes to @psuhoffman's point earlier about how the policies for the most part are just one part of the equation. Even states that have reopened are basically seeing nothing in terms of people flooding to engage in economic activity. It looks like people have internalized social distancing. Which also brings to mind... why try to get employees to return to work when the demand just isn't even there? https://www.wabe.org/atlanta-area-malls-begin-to-reopen-after-virus-restrictions-eased/ “It ended up just being kind of surreal where you just go and no one’s there,” he told WSB-TV. At Lenox Square in Buckhead, which reopens Monday, the owners are requiring workers to take safety precautions, such as being symptom-free and wearing masks at the mall. Arbor Place Mall in Douglasville set up sanitizing stations as it opened its doors and kept the children’s play area and food court seating closed. Some shoppers think the openings are too soon and too risky. “I’m fearful of people not taking safety precautions, and (I’d) rather be safe than to shop right now,” Tanya Moor said.

I’m still waiting to figure out what the heck to do with daycare. I still pay for distance learning but I’m only doing it to hold my sons spot and give him some socialization. If we aren’t returning to Daycare’s open for 2 months or more he will already be ready to move to Kindergarten.

What d they all have in common... Test. Trace. Isolate. 3 words for being good at this.

Yeah. I hear people talking about "help out with the high risk people and make sure to ensure they are taken care of" Then the actual state reopenings are basically like "if you are at high risk and don't show up to work, we'll consider that voluntary quit and drop you from unemployment." Until you can adequately ensure that high risk people aren't forced to show up to work or be fired, then it's lip service at best.

Right now most IFRs are 0.5-1%, not 0.25-0.5%. And the Spanish Flu fatality rate is a CFR, not an IFR, as far as I can tell, and lack of testing in 1918 means estimates are probably fairly poor.

Not sure about that last part, but the best bet for evidence based action is looking at governments and global health agencies recommendations, and the top experts and agencies in our own country, and trusting them to issue the best recommendations. Not youtube videos, individual doctors at for profit hospitals, politicians with competing interests, etc.

You know I hope it's clear to the "open now" people that a lot of us are not against opening, we just want to do it smartly. I don't think any of us want to stay isolated in quarantine for 2 years, but we also want to come out of this measured and calculated. All of the countries that have thrived in a coronavirus world have done so. It's why I'm so happy with Hogan's procuring of the 500k tests, and Maryland's decision to go forward sticking to the rules rather than trying to shortcut the process... and if things spike, well it will suck but at least we're following an evidence based process. Test, contact trace, isolate. I hope that the bill passes this next week to fund a 120,000 person contact tracing army. It seems to be getting support.

Looks like another drop in hospitalizations today. 3 days in a row. Maryland might just be ready for a phase on May 15th... and we'll have plenty of time to see what other states look like in their phase 1s.

Very cool! So many of us are catching up on home projects. I'm going full Marie Kondo on my house right now.

It was so, so wonderful. Went hiking with my son. We identified so many plants... the PictureThis app is awesome. We also identified stinging nettle... >.> my poor kiddo and I brushed into some.

Probpublica now reporting this. It’s fascinating. One thing that this virus is starting to be known for is non-typical symptomology. Primarily, it seems to be a virus affecting blood clotting heavily and some people’s only symptoms are blood clotting. The very first case of covid was found on a retro examination as it was originally coded as a heart attack. Of course people are probably also scared of going to hospitals contributing to higher death counts. Either way, a lot of people are dying right now.

Stayed out of the Covid thread today and it was wonderful. Had a lovely socially distanced hike on an empty trail with my kiddo and it was WONDERFUL!

Yeah. I'm not sure it's right for my family setup, namely my kid still gets traded off for custody/visitaiton stuff, but I could see its appeal if I were single and didn't have a kiddo!

Once the IFR was shown to be about 0.7% in the New York serology study + the Swiss study, and it was clear 1.5-2 million would die in a herd immunity scenario, I basically started tuning out Phin and other "it's just the flu bro" type people here. 60k for a 2% is about in line with that, and definitely not worth the tradeoff.

So has anyone heard of "quarantine circles"? The idea is interesting to me. Basically, finding a group of 10 or so friends and basically saying "We're not going to hang out with anyone else" and therefore being able to freely visit one another during the quarantine while knowing you're all safe. I have a few friends that are doing it, haha.

Ooo snakehead! Good luck!