ErinInTheSky

A day or two more of this and we're probably not going to be on track for the 14 day phase 1.

New deaths are about to be added.

I'm more following daycares. I don't think I'm ready to send my son back, but if they reopen I'll have a hard choice to make.

Yeah... we're on a bit of an uptick. Hopefully it doesn't go higher. But honestly after I saw what I saw on the trails and parks a couple weekends ago, I am not optimistic.

+709 cases, +74 deaths, +44 total currently hospitalized.

Munro notes that there is a paucity of studies on children passing to adults though, for a ton of reasons. Most schools closed relatively early before studies began collecting data, and before widespread testing, so you wouldn't expecct many index cases to be children. Parents are much more likely to continue to be working and entering the community right now. Testing is hard to obtain period right now in many countries. You can't run an experimental study for obvious ethical reasons. Studies looking at viral load and infectivity suggest kids are just as infectious as adults. But on top of all of this, there are tons of studies out there reporting different things in terms of childhood infectivity and so we should listen to the public health officials to draw our conclusions on this, instead of focusing on a single study that confirms our biases.

In case you need direct evidence kids can transmit, about 10% of households had a kid as the primary index case by which the virus was transmitted: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.26.20044826v1 (This study is included in the Munro study, who has specifically said the conclusion in the media was being reported erroneously)

That headline is exactly what he's raging about. There have been plenty of cases of kids under 10 passing to adults. In the study, they looked at a hundred or so households and none of them had the index case be a kid under 10 years old. He specifically states that the reason for this may be because children are less likely to be symptomatic and thus less likely to be discovered as the index case. You can read more from one of his colleagues here:

Literally the guy who wrote the study being cited here (Alasdair Munro) like "No, you're reading this study wrong" and other studies, published in the Lancet, have found the opposite. This in part stems from the fact that most studies have taken place after schools were closed, and Children are not going to be primary transfer points of disease in those cases. He's even raging about it on Twitter right now lol. Retweeting from people saying that hid study shows schools should remain closed. Munro just retweeted this:

Do you completely lack reading comprehension? Reread everything I wrote and try again.

You’re selectively reading studies. There are LOTS of studies showing reduction in transmission from closing schools, or that kids can transmit the virus, etc, including one that was just published in the Lancet. Try not to just freewheel you’re understanding on random studies you find, there are people with a lot of training paid a lot of money to collect and judge the best solutions based on what’s not there.

You know there will be Pennsylvania plate “locals”

I know they are saying locals only... but does anyone think there’s a chance in hell it ends up that way?

This thread is so much better when we are talking about the logistics of dealing with the coronavirus and updates on things going on in the area.

Not the shops though right? What about the walk up food booths?

Looks like even the malls which said they would be reopened decided not to.

I half have a feeling that some people want this thread nuked. Y’all please let’s not just spend 2 pages commenting on mods or on poverty and race and crime. So it looks like several other states opened up today. Just first stage openings save for some of the crazy states with full reopenings. Here’s a map. Most employers are still not bringing people in, most restaurants are staying closed, and it seems like today was a dud for retail stores with only a couple customers being reported at some. So tbh the ground truth may be that open or not, people aren’t rushing to eat at Applebee’s and be socially close.

Sorry. Let me refine that because I’m outside plenty. I hope the people who think it’s fine to be 6 feel away from others or closer outside are right.

Yeah, I think people feel a lot more comfortable outside (for whatever it's worth). I hope to god the people here who keep saying "I think outside is fine" are right.

Just to add, one thing that would make me reconsider my position is if testing becomes widespread in Maryland, and all people can get tested and contact traced.

Reopening is happening in several states but I have yet to see any evidence that it's resulting in significant economic activity, flooding of stores, bars, etc. Most places are staying closed, and even places that are opening are barely seeing any customers. I think people simply don't feel safe engaging in economic activity during a panemic. Some do for sure, but the polls generally show about 60-80% of people have some degree of avoidance planned. What I am waiting for is schools and daycares to open. We're going to have a real reckoning then. Do teachers, especially older ones, show up? Do parents feel comfortable sending their kids? Do daycares see enrollment drop, thus making it less likely to be able to operate with staff and building costs? It's going to be a very interesting next few months. If my daycare opens in a week or two, I seriously would consider not sending my son and just pulling him. I'm OK with outside play and even a few small play dates, but I'm not comfortable sending him into a building with 50 other kids, parents in and out, teachers, etc. They're already pitri dishes lol.

These people are insane.

wow.

It's the teachers I'd be more concerned about, especially the 50yo+ teachers.

I am not certain why it isn't part of the federal gating, personally. My only guess is hospitalizations as you report here might be too affected by people's willingness to stay home (and the associated increases in home deaths). Percent positive + not needing to result to crisis care probably is good enough for the federal guidelines? I prefer hospitalizations being factored though, yes. But as one of a few factors.