ncjoaquin

1 minute ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah as shown currently this is going to be a historical event.. Not hyping but just looking at the data.  Again any sudden change with this thing and that could greatly impact our area but so far all models have us as ground zero.

They definitely do. It is not hype at all. It is a scary scenario. 

13 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

I bet these will be upped as well. This is still extremely impressive.  Also if the thing ends up strengthening a good bit that will really put us under the gun for some extreme weather. 

I wish it would all be as wrong as some of the snow forecasts of the past.  This sounds like misery ahead. Chain sawing trees and being without power don't top my list of favorite things to do. 

30 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Big storms rolling through.

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Absolutely hammering here. Over an inch of rain and still pouring. Definitely did not need this. 

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

Finally getting some nice pop up storms.

There he is. When you're gone, I know nothing is going on! Plenty of thunder here, but no rain so far. 

The airport has 2.95 inches of rain in the last 3 hours, and it is still raining!

1 minute ago, Met1985 said:

It's coming

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Just checking this out. Looks rough!

One heck of a storm here in Candler. Severe thunderstorm warning Buncombe. Tornado warning Eastern Buncombe. 

4 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

Yeah it is.

Here's the video...it moved it quick.

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C5rRzYxx54_/?igsh=MWJtaDU3djZhd3c3NA==

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That is amazing. So cool!! Great pictures. 

1 hour ago, Buckethead said:

That happened fast.

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Wow!! That is crazy!!! Is that at your place? 

49 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Surprised it’s so quiet in here! The GFS laid the hammer for the central mts and points north Friday. Verbatim it was a nice thumping of wet snow, 3-7 inches. 

Saw that. Looks higher elevation, but it has some time. 

32 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

The warmth we have experienced is pretty crazy so far this month. What's our departures currently? Plus 6 or 8? The only cold place in the country currently is the inner mountain west which have been getting hammered by snow for weeks now. 

The airport is 6.8 above without even adding in today's +14. 

GFS throws us a bone next Tuesday. It's probably gone at 18z. Like Met has said, there is at least a chance coming up.

42 minutes ago, UnionCountyNCWX said:

I'm blaming you lol

Ha! Ha! I'll take responsibility.

I noticed that on this date in 1969, Asheville had 6.4 inches of snow. 

22 minutes ago, UnionCountyNCWX said:

Nah, we need to dry out, forget the wet lol

Ha! Ha! I have a well. It always makes me nervous when it gets dry. But, otherwise, I agree with you,lol. 

47 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

February is likely going to end up below average with rain compared to a very wet January. Water levels are at mid summer levels

February has sucked all the way around. Hopefully, March is wet. That, at least, looks possible. 

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

Looks like the GFS backed way off any CAD related mixed precip. Definitely the winter theme. Probably a decent weekend in the 60s for most! 

Warm it up! Hopefully, we keep the rain train. It's been a little dry lately. 

Just now, Met1985 said:

Temps were marginal whenever we had the moisture..not much at the house. You have to get above 4k feet for there to be snow on the ground.

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Nice pics 85! I'm even getting a few flakes here. 

13 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

Well it didn't take long! Coming down hard!

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That WAS quick !!! Very nice. 

7 hours ago, Met1985 said:

I do. I just try to be optimistic about things. If you read a lot of the forums it's depressing and really just makes someone not want to post here. So I try to balance things out with a little optimism. 

I appreciate the optimism! I'm not always optimistic myself, but try to lean that way. We all know, especially the past 2 winters, that the deck is stacked against us. But I would rather see how it can work than how it won't. Nothing against WNCSnow. He's a good dude. 

But, keep up the positive Met1985! 

3 minutes ago, WNC_Fort said:

Ummm… snow flurries in Biltmore Village this morning?

Also here in Candler. 2nd biggest snow of the year. 

And we are back on the Euro. Just when I thought I was out.....

High end forecast for Tuesday morning. So, maybe some flakes in the air. Though the expected forecast is zero. Trying not to give up completely yet. Who knows. It could turn positive again. 

Oh well. It's not over yet, but the models are definitely not trending in our favor. It looks like another almost zero winter for Asheville. I am sure higher elevations will get some more. Oh well, it is what it is.

I am very happy for the rain. I have a well. I'll take rain over drought. Spring and Summer are coming. Nothing wrong with fishing and beach trips. Maybe I will be surprised, but if not, we will try it again next Winter and hope for a better result.

3 hours ago, ncjoaquin said:

0z Euro shows some potential, just a week out as noted by GSP. It will probably change, but it shows the potential is there.

A more southerly
track like the new 06/00z EC suggests heavy rain Monday,
transitioning to wintry precip on the back side Monday night. The
GDPS is similar in track to the EC but not as cold. The GFS timing
would delay peak impacts to Tuesday, but hints at a more marginal
HSLC event.

 

12z GFS showing a possibility in the same time frame, especially on the border. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/