ncjoaquin

17 minutes ago, Rainforrest said:

Jason Boyer my man!!

What was his forecast? I am sure it was huge for you.

1 minute ago, BretWx said:

Let me know if the PBP is too much. I'm off today and watching this like a hawk, ha! 

PBP on !! I am checking in frequently.

It's easy to get antsy when you follow these things for so long, but like Met1985 said, the GFS and Euro have been consistent.

... And the end of the day, it's just snow.  

We are getting a good winter storm, somewhere between acceptable and wow.

5 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

Less than one inch of snowfall at KAVL is a little more than under-doing it.  It's like they will have flurries during the day, but nothing else.  Eastern and western parts of the county sill have pink shades, but the French Broad River valley is grayed out on that image.

I have seen it do that before only to have it back the next run... And while the models show the valley shadow, they are overzealous with it many times. ... Or, there could be nothing in downtown Asheville. I am hoping that I am enough southwest to pick up a decent snow. We will know when we know I guess.

6z Euro. Steady. Looking good.

3 minutes ago, BretWx said:

Not a lot of changes. Good runs overnight! We’re still looking at a major winter storm. Don’t start cliff diving if the models show less that 12in 

Definitely. Good advice. As long as we all get some snow, that is fine by me. It still continues to look like there will be more opportunities. Joe Bastardi was right about one thing. Enjoy the weather. It is the only weather that you've got. 

Just now, Met1985 said:

It's going to have to beat the EURO and GFS which I don't think it will. Those two models have been locked in.

True. They have had consistently heavy totals. It seems like we have been tracking this storm for months. I am ready for show time!

If the NAM is correct, someone is going to get smacked with a dry slot. Maybe me. If I can get 3 inches of snow, I will be happy. Anything above that will be gravy. 

An underrated gem is January of 1998. 16 inches at my house in Leicester. I was working in Flat Rock and a 45 minute drive became 6 hours so I saw it 1st hand. 

In fairness to Boyer, he doesn't say plain rain, just that it would be mixed decreasing snow totals and said that it could be significant. But, he did say it was getting warmer on the models which I have not seen nor decreased snow totals 

A lot could still change, but give me straight rain over freezing rain at 25 degrees on a frozen ground. 

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah I went from 24 to 40 degrees in about 6 hours...

Wow! That is a big jump.

46.4 downtown this morning, 44 at the airport... At the time I was looking, around 8. 29 here. Very strange.

A dusting here. This one wasn't to be, for here. Congrats on you guys that are raking it in!!

5 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

A very veteran group in here but we all get excited and tend to fall all over every model run (I know I was guilty of it when I lived in Weaverville!). 85’s post is spot on & very realistic. Temper your expectations to avoid disappointment.


.

My expectations are always tempered,lol. That is great advice. I will take an inch of snow, but if somehow it sees fit to give me a foot of snow, I will take that as well. I do like all the positive models right now for sure.

4 minutes ago, BretWx said:

I'd play it safe if I were them too... I'd like to be under a warning here, but get the decision. 

I totally agree. I just wonder what they saw to drop it. I haven't seen any model be less. But again, they have forgotten more than I know. Just curious.

1 minute ago, NavarreDon said:

I’m at work And can’t look, is that for the airport or proper? What does your pinpoint forecast call for Jason? Earlier today my old one for Newstock Rd area was saying 3-5”. I think this at a minimum will hold true for north of proper.


.

Hey Don!! Mine was earlier today also on my pinpoint. Asheville was 3 to 4 on their map and the dropped to less than 1. So, they aren't very enthused.

GSP latest map and grid forecast shows Asheville at less than an inch. I never understand what has them forecasting way less than every single model. But they are the experts and are right more than they are not. 

I just keep waiting for the rug pull, but it keeps getting better. I love the night time start. That should be a help with the warm soil temps. 

14 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Hahahahahaa I’ve been MIA for like a year. Feels good to just be able to track something 

Lol. Absolutely!! I hope you get a boatload Buddy.

When I see Buddy and Born Again in here, I know my snow model depiction has done down without even seeing it.  

31 minutes ago, Rainforrest said:

The lower end of the town of Rosman. Evacuation’s are taking place. 

That is just depressing. What a mess.

22 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

A elderly woman had to get rescued from her car today because the water was rising so fast.  

Crazy pics Met. That went from nothing to flooding so quickly. That fit the definition of flash flooding.

Worst flooding in Candler since Nov. '77 in my opinion. 5 cars submerged on Smoky Park Hwy. according to WLOS.

Can't get an inch of liquid when it snows, but getting less than inch when it rains any more is almost a surprise,lol.