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ncjoaquin

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    2018/2019 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread

    in Southeastern States

    Posted 

    ..WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. In far southwest
  North Carolina, as well as the South Carolina and Georgia
  mountains, snow and sleet accumulations will be around 2 inches
  in the lowest elevations, primarily in the form of sleet. Ice
  accumulations of one to two tenths of an inch are expected at
  these lower elevations as well. 12 inches of snow or more are
  possible on the ridges near the tri-state border. In the eastern
  Smokies and Balsams, and along the French Broad Valley, 10 to
  16 inches of accumulation are generally expected, mostly as
  snow. Higher ridges, including those along the Blue Ridge
  Parkway east of Asheville, may see 20 inches. Winds will gust as
  high as 35 mph at times.

    2018/2019 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    18 minutes ago, Kilgore Trout said:

    21 years here in Asheville, and yep, seen plenty of screw jobs. But reading the GSP forecast discussion and looking at the hourly forecast, they seem to account for this somewhat, and it won't be until tonight when the real action starts. Crossing my fingers.

    Very true. I haven't given up hope yet. I got 54 years here in Asheville, lol, so I have seen so many different ways to get screwed, it would make most people blush.  But, you make a great point. Patience is a good idea.

    • Like 2

    2018/2019 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    18 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

    Hate to say it and you’ve seen it before but the French broad river valley is not the ideal place when it’s a CAD situation. The warmer air just tunnels down that valley. 

    True, but we have overcome that many a storm to have higher totals than anybody else. So, your point is valid, but it is definitely not always the case. But, also, I guess we haven't prime time for when the snow was to be the best anyway. Hopefully, you, and us and everybody else cashes in eventually.

    • Like 1

    2018/2019 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    31 minutes ago, Kilgore Trout said:

    NWS hourly forecast has Asheville above freezing until 8 pm, BUT it currently states we should be at 35 degrees right now and we are at 40. No bueno. But it's going to be a long storm so I will just be patient.

    Looking at Intellicast radar that shows precip type, there is just a narrow stripe of rain right down the French Broad River Valley in Buncombe down to Mills River. Everywhere else is snow or a mix, per the radar anyway. We may be setting up for one of our biggest screw jobs ever and i have seen my share.

    2018/2019 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    21 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

    RGEM looks like NAM through 18 hours. Warm nose surging north on 50-60 knot low-level jet.

    edit - massive warm nose tomorrow at 7am on RGEM.  Snow totals seriously in question.

    How much snow before the change over? Can we squeeze out 6 inches.  Of course, sleet produces it's own problems. It definitely does not melt as quickly. Still would produce quite the winter mess.

    2018/2019 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    25 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

    HT is a professional. Let's make sure not to discount his contributions simply because it's not what we want to here. 

    I do want to remain hopeful however. 

    Great post !!!!  He definitely knows more than we know. We should be thankful whether it is good or negative information. I appreciate it either way. He can't just make it up to make us happy, lol. Keep it coming HT. PLUS, it is not like he controls it. If he did, we would all have 3 feet of snow!

    • Like 2

    2018/2019 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    19 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

    Uh oh. 3km NAM has 4-6 hours of sleet for Asheville overnight tonight, during the period of best forcing and maximum moisture. Bye bye snow totals. Time to sound the alarms.  This is not an epic event or once in a generation event.  Oh and 12Z NAM cuts QPF by 40-50% as well.  Damn.

     

    A181F2A1-E7ED-462B-9323-DE2D6665A750.png

    Dang. Talk about Lucy pulling the football. :(

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