forkyfork

i'm liking the boundary that's set up across cnj for storms later

guys did you know long island hasn't been getting rain

ewr has no problem hitting 90 on se winds now lol

the cams are all over the place so it'll be a nowcast

seeing signs of a ridge bridge toward august

from slightly above to much above? agree

i hit 90 once in july 2009. is that even possible anymore

ewr up to 95

4 more 90s away from tying 2009's total

that dipole is doing a number

had this happened later in the summer we all would have gotten hit

here's the reason for the bust. drier air just offshore. credit to hm for seeing it

gigo

8 now

1-3+ in this zone over the next few hours imo

would be nice to get an hrrr initialization that's accurate

the outflow boundary is sinking south and we'll start to fill in shortly

if you read the latest meso discussion that's exactly what they describe happening

"wahh it's not flooding here" posts are getting deleted from now on <3

every run of the hrrr edges a little more southeast

you're not getting missed

the 3k hits the metro with a secondary low later tonight

i'm telling randy to take your powers away

this looks significant enough for its own thread By evening instances of 3-6" locally will become increasingly plausible with 00z HREF probability fields greater than 60% from DC to N VT (with spots near 90-100% for 3" and 30-60% of 5" across NE PA/N NJ to S VT. 00z Hi-Res CAMs have trended slightly eastward to align more favorably to the greatest 14-day precipitation over 300% of climatological normal axis extending from near Baltimore to Philly to N NJ and W MA, suggesting increased runoff potential for these. As the surface wave advances toward the New York Bight by early morning, increased low level flow, will advect unstable across across S NY/New England and with continued isentropic ascent through warm conveyor belt along/north of the surface low, additional efficient thunderstorms a likely to linger overnight, in proximity to SE NY/SW New England as well as into south facing terrain making a more likely scenario for flash flooding. As such, the Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall was shifted eastward slightly to account for the guidance trends.

hooray