forkyfork

we're collectively responsible for an outlier prediction?

it's their favorite strawman

did you not notice the record warmth everywhere else

it's not going to do that and you'll scurry away when it fails to happen

looking at model soundings to determine where the lift will take place and making a best guess

it's a bullshit method

https://www.wxcaster.com/gfssnow.txt 1) Find the maximum temperature in the lowest 500 hPa in degrees K (MAXTMP) 2) If MAXTMP is greater than 271.16K, then the liquid equivalent ratio (RATIO) is 12.0 + 2.0*(271.16-MAXTMP) 3) If MAXTMP is less than 271.16K, then the liquid equivalent ratio (RATIO) is 12.0 + (271.16-MAXTMP) The 3-hourly snowfall (SNOW) is RATIO multiplied by the three hour liquid precipitation total. The accumulated snowfall (ACCUM_SNOW) is the sum of all the SNOW values up to that projection time. no accounting for riming or snowflake type. useless.

is there anything worse than a day 10 kuchera map

can't wait for him to disappear in late summer

i can see the snow in the distance from my apt window in the jc heights

lots of convection in the gulf would help too

not much middle ground. big phaser or a fish storm

that is the literal inverse of what we need for a good winter month

we need it to phase at the right time. total crapshoot

i think this being a capture scenario makes an inland snowstorm less likely

the gulf low has juice to work with

we've had several day 5 hits this year. you kinda don't want one

.75" contour or bust

if you're outside the best banding in this setup you're getting rain

if you want a last minute west trend a gulf low is how it gets done

full rainbow in jersey city

getting into the 3km nam range

that was a problem last spring/summer