forkyfork
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Everything posted by forkyfork
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sandy
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now up to 2.15
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ewr has 1.88 so far according to this https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=KEWR&unit=0&timetype=LOCAL
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i think we'll get to 3
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very nice
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these little showers are heavier than they appear on radar
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.95" so far in springfield
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looks showery for a time after this initial band but the hrrr and radar trends suggest another heavy band around 3-4 pm
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our good rains are going to come from feeder bands interacting with a warm front overhead
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the nam shows the low and mid level centers separating. that happened with the 1903 hurricane
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it winds up north of philly but crosses to its east. i'm done nitpicking the hwrf
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no it doesn't
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its initialization is wrong
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TS Fay - Drought ending Rains and Severe Convection
forkyfork replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
i never want a svr gust imby again after sandy -
i hope not. nobody away from south jersey/delmarva beaches will be getting TS conditions
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amazing that we're waiting for the center to develop so the models can get a good handle and the storm is already near NC. what a crazy year
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TS Fay - Drought ending Rains and Severe Convection
forkyfork replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
i think this mostly hugs the coast up until it gets to li. it's hard to push these inland in weak flow environments -
you're paying too much attention to the mini low centers and not the general circulation
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the hrwf isn't all that different from 6z
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i think this hugs the coast. tropical systems with relatively weak steering are tough to get far inland
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i wouldn't use the nam for a tropical system
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ewr getting nailed again
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same with the nssl wrf
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the closest model is the wrf arw and it gets heavy rain into the metro
