ZackH

If stuff does indeed pop in North Dakota on Saturday like the GFS suggests and has suggested for several runs, there will be quite a few nice storms along the warm front axis. Not really any obvious height falls, but a fairly deep low in eastern Montana and lead impulse.

Yes the 12z GFS is painting a much different, and perhaps more serious picture. I also like the NAM for the Friday around the KS/NE border.

For what its worth here are the CIPS analogs based on last nights 00z GFS. Friday: Saturday:

One thing I do like to see is that it is apparent that upper level support will be better this weekend. However... as noted... widespread precip is very probably going to be a major problem... especially the early morning convection.

For what it's worth, there's the SREF sig tor ingredients for tomorrow at 00z (this image is run sensitive and will update, just FYI). Even though it's a controversial product, the 60% contours are fairly rare. Capping will be a possible issue, but SPC has upgraded much of central MN with a 30% hatched risk on the latest day 2 and the 12z NAM has a fairly large area in a sig tor parameter of 10+ by 03z Thursday.

Well, the parameter space is fairly impressive for Wednesday, but capping and little forcing will be an issue. But if a storm can get going, it could be a big one.

Looking ahead to midweek, the Euro is showing some severe potential from central North Dakota down into South Dakota for Wednesday... CAPE at or above 2,000 J/kg... 0-6km bulk shear in the 40-60 knot range... a weaker cap than yesterday's runs with some QPF breaking out late over the best environment. Decent helicity values as well (would like to see a bit more low level shear, though). GFS is a bit less progressive and seems to hint at the best threat Thursday and further south and east (however, there is also some Wednesday potential in SD as well)... there seems to be a nice axis of decent potential from central SD up into southeast ND and into MN. There's a nice belt of 0-1km helicity around 150 m2/s2 overlapping 2000+ CAPE and 40 knot bulk shear. Something to keep an eye on as we look ahead.