buckeye

45 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

12z GFS and FV3 GFS are looking very stormy a week or so out.  Things are definitely looking up.  

This is the time of year I really get excited about getting some good snow....I hate green Christmas's.     I always look for patterns or trends to set in at the beginning of the season and one of the disturbing ones I've noticed is that storms seem to be warmer as they get closer in time.  We've had several decent looking LR snow events for the sub in which the snow sector begins to get smaller and the rain becomes more dominant as the timeframe shortens....(this weekend for instance), and now next weekend as well.

Hopefully this won't be a repeating theme.   Last couple of years the theme was strong storms in the long range turning into to weak sauce in the short range.

On another note I'm dubious about all of this SSWE talk.   I keep wondering why, if all the ingredients were already there for the winter forecasts to showcase a cold/snowy JFM, than why is everyone riding the SSWE like it's going to be a winter savior?..... I thought the winter was already saved by enso, indices, and analogs? 

14 hours ago, Stebo said:

WV is kind of in between IMO but there are definitely some south mixed in. Maybe S IN/OH KY/WV is the mixing zone. The 'sleet' area

from my experience it doesn't matter if it's Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Pennsylvania, etc....

....every state has a 'lil bit of "WV" somewhere in it.

2 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

I know it's been a day since you made this post, but out of general curiousity, what indications favor this occurring?

Don't encourage him

19 minutes ago, Michigander said:

Yes it failed us for November and December if I remember correctly.

it's stuck on torch default mode.    I think the govt uses it primarily to garner support for carbon taxes.

1 minute ago, Michigander said:

Everyone and EVERY FORECAST except CPC?

that model is a joke

2 hours ago, Stebo said:

02-03

That analog is probably the most touted one out there this season.

If we hadn't been on the slop side of that xmas storm,  that would probably be a top 3 winter for me....considering we scored huge with the president's day storm that year.

Man...EVERYONE....EVERY forecast....has Xmas thru spring training as Katy-bar-the-door-for-jo-mama's-winter-of-yore

and now the glide path to our incoming ice age gets a last minute lube job courtesy of our good ole friend the sswe.

What could possibly go wrong?

1 hour ago, Malacka11 said:

As the garden type variety of snow fan whose forecasting abilities are that of whatever shows up as green and blue on tropical tidbits, I'm flabbergasted. I can't decide if this is an elaborate joke or if it may actually be a thing, simply because "hopefully it's stronger than 1978" is not a common phrase, and we're so far out still.. my mind is swirling with the possibility. This IS my green brownie

I can't recall if it was last year, or even more embarrassingly, 2 years ago, but Jeb graced us with his winter forecast for the lakes and OV.  It painted a winter that made 1977-78 look like 2011-12.  Other than that it was spot on.

15 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

So you are saying it was just bad luck that I saw 8" of snow in GA last December and the biggest snow I saw in IN was 4" last winter ?

anomaly?....sure.    luck?....that works too.    Why what's your explanation?

30 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

Then Indiana's suicide rate should be much higher

lol...

my daughter who graduates grad school from IWU this spring would concur 100%.   We make fun of her when she starts having one of her 'I can't stand this place' rants...

we actually call them her  'Marion Meltdowns'  

4 hours ago, Stebo said:

Seems legit

yea I checked the ensembles.   Out of 51 solutions....  the OP is the only one that has that lol.     I will say this, the euro has been hellbent on putting a small pocket of heavy snow over someone in the lakes, OV, or MW for the last several runs for that timeframe.    My guess is by the time we finally get a storm the cold air pool will continue to shrink and it'll be pretty much a big rain event.

1 hour ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

One thing I love about the south is that EVERY snow event is a big deal. It's snowing lightly here right now and could see some light accumulations and nobody is even talking about it. That's what I don't like about the midwest. In the south, snow is more fun. You go so long without seeing snow, that you appreciate even the slightest bit of snow. I think people up here take the smaller events for granted and don't appreciate it enough.

...incoming wrath of Josh in t minus 10...9...8..

42 minutes ago, AppsRunner said:

Unsubscribe. 

ouch...you win.   You should be granted a get-out-of-banning-free b*tch card good for the entire upcoming season.

On 12/2/2018 at 4:44 PM, pondo1000 said:

Looks like mid-Atlantic COULD get some significant snow next week. Again, before central Ohio. This area sucks. I miss the winters back east north of Philadelphia. 

We average slightly more snowfall than philly and their nw burbs.  When I lived there in the early/mid 70's it was a joke for winter weather.   I moved to Ohio right after that in the late 70's and thought I had moved to Alaska.    It's all perspective and sometimes you can luck out with a great stretch of winters over many years, (see Detroit), or a bad stretch too, (see Indy).   Those areas will reverse as climo eventually always wins out.   

It does seem the midatlantic has had a stretch of winters lately that feature at least one good storm ....but they have also gone many years in a row with nada.   You look at the snowfall totals for midatlantic cities and it's deceiving.   It's like they'll go 7 years with 12" and then get 2 years in a row with a 30" noreaster.   Quite honestly, as I get older I'd probably prefer that winter climo over endless subfreezing days and nickle and dime snowfalls, ie Central Ohio.     

But in the end snow melts....  congestion, rude people, and high taxes don't.   

19 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

And I understand my climo...that is not the issue. 

ummm yea, it pretty much is the issue.

I wish my car performed like a lamborghini....I understand it's a honda,  but that's not the issue. 

On 11/25/2018 at 7:57 PM, zinski1990 said:

We all definitely know the feeling here in Indiana. I swear sometimes winter storms just love to mess with this state. Try being in central Indiana where like it seems like 2/3s of the storms always decide to play the north or south I 70 game. Central Indiana is a big snow repellant. Hoping this winter is finally our turn

Here in Central Ohio, we are your brethren in pain.   As tough as we've had it, I know it's been even worse for you guys.   We can at least score a little with noreaster fringes from time to time and even some Lake Michigan fetches.   For you guys to get a really good windy ole fashioned snow storm, you need it to pass over us coming due north out of the southeast and TN valley.....a very rare track the last several winters.

What we folks in the i-70 snow death corridor need is a moisture bomb out of the gulf, fighting a stout arctic high over the lakes ( and the arctic high managing to stand it's ground).

3 hours ago, HighTechEE said:

Was he the replacement for Joe Holbrook?  We lost him 3 yrs ago at the age of 87.  Grew up watching him on ch10 and Jim Ganahl & Ben Gelber on ch4.

No, there was someone after Holbrook, but he was a local legend as well.   I'm wondering if it was Mike Bettis he replaced, (yes same guy on weather channel), but he might have worked for ABC here too.   Of course us old timers also remember the days when Larry Cosgrove was the chief on air met at the local ABC channel here in Columbus, (circa 80's).

Speaking of Holbrook, I thought this excerpt in a story about him as a forecaster here during the blizzard of '78 was funny:

Legendary 10TV meteorologist Joe Holbrook was closely monitoring the storm in WBNS' weather office. In the age before the Internet, local television meteorologists would go outside to check the station's thermometer for temperature, an anemometer for winds and barometer for pressure. Joe thought it was odd that the barometer reading had sunk close to 28 inches. He tapped on it thinking the needle was stuck. It did not move.

...ya think? lol

Ganahl is still here.   Although Ganahl is a part-timer at channel 6 now and I'm not sure how much Gelber is still doing.   

So general concensus backed up with euro weeklies is a pretty cold and stormy 2 to 3 week period followed by a relaxation, (just in time for xmas of course )....then we see how long and what happens next.

Things definitely look primed for an early season event or 2 for the sub before any relaxation occurs.

For the Columbus area weenies, sad news, WBNS announced Chris Bradley has entered into hospice.   Prayers for him and his family.  He was a great on -air met..  A true snow weenies at heart and way too young

6" for columbus = bad run

I thought I read the euro was going to have an 06z and18z run.  If so when does that happen?

starting to wonder if calls of an above average December, (temp-wise), 

....are gonna be in trouble.   

Mild signals keep falling apart as we progress into late November with no long term signs of any moderation setting in.  An early winter was not in the cards for a lot of the forecasts I've read.    The fasten seat belt lights and the oxygen masks just dropped on LC flight 2018-19 

36 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Ongoing TT upgrade made me realize how much I've come to rely on them.  Probably the model site I use the most, although I pretty much only use COD to look at models such as the HRRR/RAP. Funny how that is.

I like TT for the 500maps.    WxBell 500maps not so much

On 10/13/2018 at 2:06 PM, Hoosier said:

I wonder if buckeye still reads JB.

Who am I kidding?

I did my usual.  Signed up and will carry it to March 1st.

I actually haven't been reading JB because right now I'm more interested in actual model output then reading JB's relentless pursuit and bias of cold and snow.   Once we get closer to the holidays and I actually put my weenie gear on, (and want cold and snow). I'll start reading and watching to feed my false hope.

I have no feeling of what to expect this winter.  I just know every year my desire for cold and snow gets more narrow and more focused around the holidays and January...with a greater desire for a very late mild fall and very early mild spring....and of course always chasing that mirage big dog storm.

Welcome back Steve.  Hopefully this thread remains quiet thru Nov since I'm a big fan of warm dry Novembers.   Then we start rocking around Dec 18th.  Carry that thru January, and close up early in Feb.   There, I just put my order in for winter 18-19 ....a man can dream.