buckeye

Sure, it could be a trend north, or maybe the fv3 is foretelling a future trend south..... who knows, but forget the snow/rain depiction. Anytime ma nature wants to bring a low from Oklahoma to central WV with a 1047 arctic banana high pressing southeast, sign me up, I don't care what the gfs says it's going to do on the surface. That is not a setup that screams nw trend, IMveryHO. That weird skip where the WV low suddenly disappears and then reappears in SC says a lot about the resistance this is going to have trying to come northeast. I could even see a scenario where we rain and then a secondary forms on the front that ends up being the main show. Lot's to work out here.

I'm also a bit intrigued with the Thursday system. Nam shows snow, icon shows snow, ggem shows snow, but gfs and euro are bit too warm.

we all know that it's nothing more than a snapshot in time....but as of todays 12z runs, they were awesome. Euro bumped back south to put i70 back as the axis of heaviest snow, widespread 10-15" amounts from Dayton to Pittsburgh. Icon looks similar with 15" amounts. Gfs not as sexy but still very nice. Uk came in line with gfs. GGEM so far out on it's own it either scores the coupe of the century or get's the dunce cap, (but even it gives us 4-6" as bad as it looks). Then they all bring the arctic hammer right behind it, close -10 degrees. No celebration yet....still everything that can go wrong is on the table. I still think suppression is the biggest potential party-spoiler.

00z euro bumped north, but has some interesting results that remind me of some of the local craziness of the Dec'04 winter storm. For instance, per the euro, northern Franklin County gets 16" of snow, southern Franklin County gets 6" plus some sort of frozen slop. Delaware on north getting close to the 20" mark...Fayette, Fairfield, south probably a massive icestorm. Of course it's one of many runs and bumps to come, but still an interesting snapshot. Probably won't know confidently until thursday 00z where this is likely to go and whether it's likely rain, ice, snow, or the combo platter.

I think as of now, suppression is a bigger threat than wound up and warm, 60/40. But of course that could all be different by the 00z runs. I'd also watch the wed/thurs weak system for a possible light accum.

Did you see it also has an app runner hour 300? Haven't seen this kind of snow on snow potential since 2010.

Wow, I don't know who does the AFD for ILN but they are NEVER bullish on anything....especially this far out. Kinda getting the cart before the horse by not even mentioning rain. The next winter storm is taking shape for next weekend. Models are in fair agreement showing low pressure containing copious moisture and strong winds tracking across the Tennessee Valley. This track places the ILN area in a cold easterly flow that would produce heavy snow from strong lift and moisture transport existing in the circulation around the low. A tight pressure gradient raises the possibility for blowing and drifting snow, along with subzero wind chills.

Thats awesome, I was waiting for someone underneath that radar blob to check in

Measured just under 3 and now it's hammering.....upping my guess 4-6

Models did well....so far

Been frustratingly light snow so far with about 1.5-2" down. Best radar returns getting ready to come in and snow finally hitting moderate . I'd guess 3-4 will end up being the end game. Not bad

Ok you do glass half empty....ill go glass half full... Surprise 5-8 as banding,sets,up along i70

I said eps...not op. I also said 'signal'. It's also been holding that general idea for that timeframe for last 3 days.... so not quite a billion. but thanks. also, please don't take my post the wrong way. I'm thankful for your reply, you've taught me that weather changes.

I know the euro op was weak sauce for the day 10 threat but the eps has an unusually strong signal around days 8-10 for a nice hits (around next weekend). Lots of pornographic ensemble members still showing up.

Lol...wow. The nam has been slowly narrowing the snow band more and more and now it goes 'poof' It's easy to say "it's just the nam being the nam". But it does have a history of correctly being the first to lose a threat. As of now it's still far enough out on the nam that it's probably bunk.

Sure was..... Good omen too!

So you taking 97-98 off the plate?

....not until I start participating

Would love a 2010 redux. One thing I remember about that stretch of awesomeness is that the gfs started showing epic snowstorms piling up in the fantasy range .....it of course screwed up the details but nailed the 2-3' of snow on snow we ended up getting. That's what I'm looking for....storminess signal in the LR about the time the cold comes south. Really no threats showing up yet in any of the LR guidance.

The good news is climo always has a way of balancing out which means when we do get our groove back, it should be pretty nice....the bad news is that could be this year or in 3 years. Fwiw, the 384 hour gfs and most lr guidance looks ready to bring the hammer down temp-wise. Get ready for a long stretch,of brutal cold with pennies and nickels.

One similarity is that we were constantly chasing a unicorn pattern change throughout January that never materialized. Then that insane torch hit in Feb and March. 90s in Michigan...in March! That was crazy, probably will never see anything close to that again in our lifetimes.

Well, at least we still have our dignity by only giving this winter 3 pages of respect so far. Unlike the MA forum that is closing in on 300 pages of winter weather discussion threads since late October, with even less snowfall than we have to show for it.

We've never had shortages of bones being thrown at us.....we get boned all the time by the models. Our problem is getting one with some actual meat.

Don't encourage him

I can't recall if it was last year, or even more embarrassingly, 2 years ago, but Jeb graced us with his winter forecast for the lakes and OV. It painted a winter that made 1977-78 look like 2011-12. Other than that it was spot on.