buckeye

2.3" of qpf

still 4 days out....lot's of time for wobbles....and literally we are a wobble away from epic snow and a wobble away from screwed.

Seriously, can we ever NOT ride the edge?? Unreal. 50 miles south and we're gold.

11" in dublin..... 3" in groveport

looks better for sw OH but worse for se OH. cmh is about the same. There's that sw to ne trajectory showing up again.....hmmm

from what i can see so far on stormvista.... should be slightly better than 00z....

My folks lived on the new albany / westerville border. They lost power for a week as well, here in Westerville we got a snowstorm that transitioned to an icestorm, but the ice wasn't nearly as epic as is was for you guys....still did some major damage. The gradient from epic heavy snow to raging ice storm to plain rain was something to behold. Literally occurring within a couple of counties. Then it got brutally cold....right in time for Christmas. Horrible.

Our overall issue right now is the storm is trying to run between the departing high and the incoming high. It's like our bananna high is too soft in the middle.

oh god, that's right....you guys were in the pure rain part of that. That was crazy.... Dilly must have been

then again, f we can get a further south track to start this and turn up the apps instead of sending it through northern KY.......

anyone else noticing a trend for a more sw to ne trajectory of the snow shield vs. w to e?

scratch that on the fv3, it wasn't storm vista it was a link that I took from another thread. Actually looks pretty good. well ok actually. Looks like it favors the north west side of the i-71 corridor. It's also way less expansive with the snow shield in general

I have it on stormvista, trust me it ends up further into southeast OH. btw, the ukie is actually a whiff at 132...goes out to sea off the southern MA coast.

fwiw, the gefs matches the OP pretty well.

I was thinking the other day that it's been forever since we had a rain changing to snow 'storm'. I know it seems like it never happens but back in the day they seemed much more frequent. And I'm not talking about 1" of rain followed by 1" of snow, I'm talking about a changeover that results in a winter storm warning. It's been a long time since we've seen that but we have seen them. I remember one in January '94 (or '95 lol...terrible with years), that went from rain to snow and counties to the north like Delaware and Union went to blizzard warnings..

looks like the fv3 goes to the nw trend side. I can't tell how good the backside stuff is but definitely starts out warmer than the gfs and further nw than the 6z

I'd love to see a 132 hr frame, hard to tell. Looking at the 5h it would definitely do some northward climbing before heading ots. Of course I'm now disecting the ukie... enough of that

good to see you posting again The ukie looks awesome, 1003 low in n. GA getting ready to head north

the problem right now is this storm needs to get further east into the TN valley before it starts making the ne movement. That warm air rushes in about the time the crawl north from w.TN into KY begins. I guess that means we need to root for a quicker northern stream or a slower southern stream

yea hopefully we have more than a backside crusty coating to show for it too

AMEN.... I'll give it to them with a ribbon. Misery = icestorm power outtages with brutal cold incoming. Not sure if the TT maps are screwy but the 12zGEM actually improved with the snowfall for us from 00z.

I always felt, and still do, that Wednesdays 12z runs should give us a good idea. We'll see if the nw trend is a collective bump or real by then.

i think the best news we can take is it wasn't a major bump north, but it was north. Still time and reason, (not wishcasting), to have this go back to earlier further south adjustments. I've seen this before around this time frame where the models start amping only to dial back again and quite honestly it usually happens with our big storms. It's intersting, (knock on wood), we haven't seen any really big north jogs as in taking us completely out of the game, (in terms of primarily rain). That tells me there is a ceiling for how far north and strong this can get... I would bet we've seen that ceiling, (granted verification may end up being the ceiling). here's to staying positive.... I'm gonna need a few.

yea, definitely a concern.... I feel like ugly things might happen today trend-wise, or maybe it was bad shrimp last night. Still have to realize that with such a stout high to the north and a relatively fast flow with a storm on a pos. tilted trough, this definitely could go through a cycle on the models where they overamp it, and then as we close into 72 hours or so, weaken it back to earlier runs as a bit weaker and more progressive. The point is you could make a strong meterological argument either way. But yea, today I'm fearing the nw bump.

I wish I had a 132hr plot...but at 120 it's further south and at 144 it's way east on the ne coast, so it looks to have abandoned any NW moves at least. When I saw that icon run my first thought was why does this have to be the icon? Lol. Not only does it put down like 18", it had winds well over 30mph, a classic blizzard. Nice to see the gem come south....still needs work. It looks like this is turning into a West to east storm unable to cut nw. So question remains what factors end up winning out to push the trajectory more north or south. The low can only strengthen so much without room for the trough to go neg. I wonder if tonight runs were the north ceiling? Wishful thinking maybe. Then again I wouldn't be surprised to see euro bump north again. How many times have we seen a pattern where the 12z goes south and the 00z goes north and seems to repeat for several runs. This old man ain't staying up for it either.