buckeye

1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said:

Yeah, true, was more pointing out relative to same latitude zone farther west why the same huge totals aren't expanding east and narrower area of decent totals. Looks possibly more mesoscale banding driven farther east just eyeballing it.

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these type of storms seem to like i-70 for some reason when it comes to that narrow banding.

3 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Improvements farther west on 12z NAM12. Slightly stronger h5 low closes with better height rises ahead of it. Also stronger more compact 850 low for a time. The northern stream confluence stays farther northeast so the dry air issue is reduced westward, resulting in a much better run for and gradient shunted northward a bit in northern IL.

Issue I'm seeing farther east into IN and OH is related to the slower and stronger ULL, keeping stronger forcing farther west, which makes for a narrower less intense precip shield, likely also more of a struggle with dry air at least initially. By the time the system slowly tracks eastward, upper wave dampens and cuts off the accumulating snow.

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it's actually improved further east for us as well...coming in line with the other models.

nam is back with the rest of the models showing a general 3-4" for i-70.    

2-4"...advisory looks really good right now.    

then after whatever happens with that one over the weekend, we might be tracking a larger event 5-7 days out.  I've seen every possible model scenario for that storm....rain or snow or mix...but the signal for something is pretty strong and consistent across the board.

25 minutes ago, vespasian70 said:

06z GFS looks like a decent hit for the southern half of OH. Just don't look at the 06z NAM.

Lol...wow.  The nam has been slowly narrowing the snow band more and more and now it goes 'poof'

It's easy to say "it's just the nam being the nam". But it does have a history of correctly being the first to lose a threat.  As of now it's still far enough out on the nam that it's probably bunk.

4 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

Nice snow squall right now...

Sure was.....  Good omen too!

18z gfs for the sub...

(3) big threats,  240, 300, 370.   They aren't dried up clippers either, they are juiced up systems coming out of the southern plains.     It's these kind of runs that started showing up in the LR leading up to Feb'10.   Details sucked but the overall idea of a snow bonanza in a relatively short time ended up being spot on.   

7 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 At this point I don't mind not being in a jackpot as long as I get Snow lol. Do you have a link or is that pay only?

wb, so pay only.   I wish I could attach some of the ens members...some are pure porn.  And it's not because I'm ethical, it's because I don't have 24 hours to individually delete 300 images before I clear out enough space to be allowed to post again, (that's a rant for a different thread).

The mean isn't as pornographic but still the best signal I've seen for central IL, IN, and OH in a long time.   The individual members are feast or famnine, but more feasts than famine....definitely a snow on snow signal.

18z rgem looks pretty at 54.... might signal a nice 00z ggem run.

Just now, michsnowfreak said:

Wow. How is it for southern MI?

lots of good hits for a large part of the sub.   But the axis is i-70.   Probably one of the best 2 week stretch for storm potential in awhile.   At least it's not a tundra signal.

3 minutes ago, Baum said:

it ain't down yet. And after you took a shot at my boy Alek in the other thread you may reap his vengeance..."bank clock reads 33"

ask him what's the temperature under Hillary's skirt? 

still thinking a solid 2-4 looks good.    Finally going to look like winter.

...and the best part is it's actually January....not fcking March or April!!!!  What a concept!

the eps 15 day snowfall, (mean and individual members), is the best I've ever seen for MO, IL, IN, OH.   It's like the gods finally decided to drive some good karma right down i-70.

...of course now we have to go from digital to reality....that's always been a sticking point.

Just now, Snowless in Carrollton said:

So I guess this weekend isnt a biggie ? My definition of biggie may be different than yours though, being from the south. 1-3" is a biggie to me.

I don't know if this weekend will be a biggie but no, 1-3" is not a biggie.   Even in a year of futility.

....maybe something to watch in the longer range.    The eps has moved the LR trough axis further west....enough so that I think it puts more of our sub in the game for a potential biggie, if it's right.   Up until now it's looked like any big dog was a lock to be a coastal in the LR.   

6zGfs continues to slip away....

Meanwhile the euro trends better.

Hopefully today we get some concensus    but usually decent storms come together on the major models when you're inside 4 days...so this late game divergence doesn't bode well for a significant storm.... jmho

Just now, StormChaser4Life said:

0z gfs def came north with heavier accumulations. Nothing like nam but a step in the right direction 

Have to disagree.  Overall a slight step in the wrong direction with stronger hp and flatter look.   Ggem same trend.  

1 minute ago, cyclone77 said:

Ahhh, love me some amped up NAM runs.  It's like sort of a tradition or something.

Last year there was a really good one for us here in CMH.  It blew up an otherwise benign light event into over a foot.  It was an 00z run, probably about 60 hours out.  Took about 2 runs later before it came down and crashed to reality. 

 Being nam'd is like having the hottest girl at the party give you a surprise kiss and walk away.  You know it ain't gonna lead to anything but it still makes your night.

16 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

Gradual thinning of the warmth at depth overall since October? The SOI has a shot at a huge month over month drop from December, which does, sometimes, tie into big -NAO periods in the US. Last one being March 2018 when the SOI dropped by close to 20 points from Feb to Mar. Years with 20 point drops in winter include favorites like 1976. The SOI is current below -10 in January but that's already up a lot from earlier in the month. December was over +9.

So you taking 97-98 off the plate?

11 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Wasn't Alek the guy from Chicago who hated cold weather? What happened to him?

Not sure if he hated cold weather, but yes he's from Chicago.

He left the board after Trump won the election.  I'm not sure if it was a bet or he humiliated himself so much in the political forum claiming Trump didn't have a chance that he couldn't take the heat.   Pretty sure it has something to do with TDS though.

6 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

Sorry. What's WTOD?

warm tongue of death

And Angry and myself hopefully didn't jinx it by claiming it couldn't happen....anything can happen.   I should know better 

Just now, Angrysummons said:

gotcha. I figure the nam is just being itself at 84 hours.

no doubt....the nam will probably show a 988 driving to Cleveland by tomorrow 00z

Just now, Angrysummons said:

This can't cut buckeye. Its getting squished by the wavelengths. Lack of moisture transport because the low is pretty far south is the bigger problem.

that's what I said ....  no danger of WTOD.   Improvements in snowfall would be a result of a stronger inverted trough and slower speed.   

18zgfs is a minor improvement.   Inverted trough is more pronounced.    If that trend continues it's a nice way to up totals without having to fear the wtod.

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Buckeye, I'd say Jan 99 is the prime example of both of us getting significant snow from the same storm.  You will rarely see a northeastward moving system hit both of us like that.  I actually think it would be a little easier for both of us to get hammered by a clipper on steroids moving nw to se.

You're right....something from the south ain't gonna cut it.   But hell I remember a manitoba mauler that came through several years ago that gave Indiana thundersnow but the damn thing wrapped up as it moved east, dry air got pulled into it, and we got dry slotted.   It's amazing the multiple ways we can fail.

Just now, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Speaking of Christmas snows, did you get any snow around Christmas 2004 ?

yes one of my favorite storms but it was way too close for comfort.   We got a snowstorm followed by an icestorm.   I could smell the plain rain to my east and the epic snow to my west.    That's probably a Hoosier top 5 hated.