buckeye

gem still too far north, but trended south

I'll take my chances with a track like that. Pretty close to identical to the 6z too

on storm vista it's like 2'+ along i-70. <no.weenie>I'm guessing the algorithm is screwy on TT <no.weenie>

It would lay down snow. At the point it crosses into WV and gets closer to the OH river, we might mix up here, but that track as depicted with all other features on the map is a raging snowstorm for us.

It's a great run....ignore the precip type...makes no sense. Check out panel 87hr. Have you ever seen a snowstorm with that kind of rain/snow line in the middle of the comma head? That snow line would most likely go from south of Pitt to bloomington IN.....NOT Youngstown to Indy . Especially with the low in south central KY and a pressing arctic high.

Always a good sign when OHweather pops in with commentary!

Any word on DeepThunder 6z?

You must be looking at the wrong one. Gefs and it's members are the best run we've seen wrt this cluster storm yet.

I'm beginning to doubt this will be a huge storm for anyone in the forum. 6-10 might be the high mark wherever that happens. I've followed weather for many years and the one thing all big dogs have in common is they are usually sniffed out within 5 days and models begin to hone in details. Models don't lose the threat or jump it around or find five different ways to make it snow in the same place. Big dogs aren't complicated. This is a cluster 4 days out...the two most consistent models have totally different solutions.

Less clarity tonight than 24 hours ago. If euro holds serve you pretty much have to weight it heavily based strictly on consistency. Good night

Uk held serve.

We are in such a progressive flow, wound up solutions make no sense. Look how quickly the gfs has another storm at 150. Nothing will be able to amplify.

Not buying the gem taking the low from Oklahoma to just south of cincy and then back south east to southern WV. I bet tomorrow it's weaker and it's Oklahoma, TN, WV....and a decent hit for us.

The gem is a hot mess. I don't understand how a low pressure travels so far north on a pos tilted trough with strong high pressure pushing south and no semblance of a southeast ridge.. All the wound up north solutions look goofy.....but what do I know..lol

Drastically different

Just saw that....polar opposite of what the nam would do.

I realize I'm extrapolating an 84 hr nam...but for no other reason then it being a perfect example of what would not only save us but might even go too much in the opposite direction. PV pressing down hard. A subtle version of that trend is what we need.

I think the best screwjob analog for this storm would be February 13,2007. VERY similar set up. In that situation we were suppose to get a foot of snow but it quickly changed to a sleet fest. Indiana, (Hoosier), got himself a full blown blizzard. I've been looking at those maps. The set up is similar but the main difference I found was the ridge axis out west was more broad and further west. There was more room for that storm to deepen and gain latitude....not by much, but it didn't take much.

So let's just go ahead and shine some light on the 800lb gorilla in the corner of the room. Cause we're all thinking it.... it's 8am Saturday morning, sleet starts pinging on the windows....an hour later rain drops mix in....by 10am we have a steady driving rain with 30mph winds and 37 degrees. Meanwhile Marion, points north are under a blizzard warning. Face your fears gentlemen....face your fears.

I haven't either, but I would bet sleet is the bigger precip type in the transition zone. Just a hunch.

anyone have verification scores on this bad boy?

Has anyone dug into soundings to see if the freezing rain is a real threat or is it going to be mostly sleet in the area between snow and rain?

it's subtle but I thought the 5h was a nice improvement on the 18z in that the hp/northern stream was pushing further south and lowering heights in front of the storm much better. You can really see it starting at 90 hours on tt. If that were to continue, the eventual result would be a further east and south solution.

they will once it gets to a point of posting advisories etc. Right now it's still speculative You have to remember this thing is still 4 days out from getting it's act together in the southern plains. In front of it there will be two disturbances crossing the country between now and then. The general idea of a storm is solid... the details are as clear as mud.

fwiw jma looks like a solid snow storm. Takes low to southern WV. Best take from the 12z runs is that there are no outlier nw cranked solutions. The only outlier solutions are much further south. I think our ceiling is set, now we hope for this beast to settle down just a tiny bit. Granted I'd rather be in Findlay or Mansfield's shoes right now.