buckeye

Just checked, Arctic outbreak of 1884.  Widespread. -30s. Through indiana too.

23 minutes ago, Stebo said:

That stuff the FV3 was showing would have rivaled 94.

Yup, by around 10 degrees!   There was an infamous Arctic outbreak for the great Lakes and OV many many years ago in which some lows reached -40 in some,of the valleys in southeast Ohio.

2 minutes ago, King James said:

Excited to follow this one with you boys and learn from your insights


.

...could be dangerous 

1 minute ago, chuckster2012 said:

Lakes or O.V.? That seems to be the question. 18z GFS has a foot of snow from St.Louis to Cincy. It sucks to be in the bullseye this far out. Not even going to worry about it for a couple more days..

In my experience, the portion of the OV that is north of the Ohio River is usually just lumped into "Midwest" in those kind of regional discussions.  

2 minutes ago, vespasian70 said:

Yup. Lots to look forward to after a boring extended pattern. Ma nature is making up for lost time.

Although, I'm actually kind of worried about suppression for the weekend system.

I think as of now, suppression is a bigger threat than wound up and warm,  60/40.  But of course that could all be different by the 00z runs.

I'd also watch the wed/thurs weak system for a possible light accum.

Did you see it also has an app runner hour 300?   Haven't seen this kind of snow on snow potential since 2010.

Wow, I don't know who does the AFD for ILN but they are NEVER bullish on anything....especially this far out.   Kinda getting the cart before the horse by not even mentioning rain.

The next winter storm is taking shape for next weekend. Models are
in fair agreement showing low pressure containing copious moisture
and strong winds tracking across the Tennessee Valley. This track
places the ILN area in a cold easterly flow that would produce heavy
snow from strong lift and moisture transport existing in the
circulation around the low. A tight pressure gradient raises the
possibility for blowing and drifting snow, along with subzero wind
chills.

I hope whatever happens EVERYONE in the sub has a snowcover before arctic armagaeddon.  Nothing worse than going into something like that with bare ground.   For us folks further south who just got the snow, that could happen if we get wiped out with rain for the weekend storm, followed by the flash freeze.    puke  

Maybe we can luck out and get some decent frontal passage snow to ensure everyone gets covered up, even those who miss out on the storm.

Euro has minus upper teens across IN and W. OH following the storm next weekend.    Chances for a brutal cold, (possibly record cold), period, is starting to get real.

gfs and ggem are worlds apart.  Just looking at hour 150, ggem is cranking a low in northern Oklahoma with a neutral trough trying to go neg while the gfs has a weak low in eastern OH.  Much more progressive.   

Best guess on this one is it favors areas north of this previous snowfall.    There's also another strong signal for one around hour 240 which would be 3 or 4 days later....lots to be sorted out...then throw in the wildcard with that brutal cold staged just north of us and if nothing else, things should be far from zzzzzz for the sub.

1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

Sweet jebus, my coffee mug frosted over just looking at that.  

Yea and there's nothing fun about that.   I experienced -22 back during the Jan '94(or '95 can't recall which), super arctic outbreak.   It was interesting for a day just to experience, but that's about it.  I lived in a condo complex at the time and no one could go to work because their cars wouldn't start.     Also, once you get down to temps that extreme, the misery index sky rockets for most people due to things like pipes freezing, car issues, heating concerns, and quite simply life-threatening cold.     

Just seeing it on a map is crazy....but fv3 has 2m temps hitting  -30 in Ohio.  

29 minutes ago, iluvsnow said:

Here in Bellbrook.....Southeast Dayton area....we have been pummled by the band from the upper low now for several hours. Up to 10 inches.....and still coming down. What a way to break out of the slump....bring on more!!!!!

 

 

Thats awesome, I was waiting for someone underneath that radar blob to check in

Measured just under 3 and now it's hammering.....upping my guess 4-6

1 minute ago, dilly84 said:

Sucks when ya see what it dropped back west and how fast it weakened and dried up. I'm thinking I'll be close with my 3-4" call as well

Models did well....so far

Euro op looks like a southeast outlier.  At 168 it has the low in Louisiana, but the eps has the majority of lows clustered in western TN.   Pretty much everyone should be watching this one.

Been frustratingly light snow so far with about 1.5-2" down.  Best radar returns getting ready to come in and snow finally hitting moderate .

I'd guess 3-4 will end up being the end game.   Not bad 

5 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

No,you mean the NCEP is. ECMWF.........not really. I don't want to start with the UKMET.........

This isn't really a "arctic" pattern, but a suppressed PAC JET with arctic air stuck on the border. Who doesn't love that pattern if it delivers snow though?

You're getting dangerously close to being called Optimismsummons

29 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Over by 20 degrees easily.

Yea its crazy, all I want is some good snow but some of these models are showing 'day after tomorrow,' kind of stuff on the LR. 

I'd like to nominate cyclone as our 2019 official storm thread starter

49 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

I have a feeling it may tick south & dry air wins out. 2-3 probably a good call. 

Ok you do glass half empty....ill go glass half full...

Surprise 5-8 as banding,sets,up along i70

5 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

Shows how desperate we are, looking at 192-240 stuff lol..........that will change a billion times in 3 days.

I said eps...not op.   I also said 'signal'.   It's also been holding that general idea for that timeframe for last 3 days....  so not quite a billion.

but thanks.

also, please don't take my post the wrong way.  I'm thankful for your reply, you've taught me that weather changes.

I know the euro op was weak sauce for the day 10 threat but the eps has an unusually strong signal around days 8-10 for a nice hits (around next weekend).   Lots of pornographic ensemble members still showing up.

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

I was checking out some stats for Detroit and the last time they were this deep into January with less than 8" of snow was 2011-12.  How the mighty have fallen.  

....at least in 11-12 we were torching our way into that epic Morch.    If we end up with similar snow totals as 11-12 with temps around normal or below normal into march, that's the definition of

METEROLOGICAL HELL

if we can't be in the sweet spot, at least it's nice to see indy in there.   Hopefully we can also score a respectable  hit before the precip peters out too much. 

 I've seen in the past where these hold together better than models were showing, especially along i-70