buckeye
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Everything posted by buckeye
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I wouldn't sweat the gfs. Looks like it's having issues where to put a surface low at he 72-78. Could actually be on its way to a ukie type solution.
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Scratch everything I said about the eps, except the good news part. Last time I use someone else's info without checking first. EPS looks great.... more squarely through the center of OH and around 10" on average
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I would think it's a post-dawn start vs. pre-dawn....like7-10am??? for CMH. Earlier for cincy
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Just as I would be worried if the euro was the only model showing an amplified warm look, I'm equally worried that it's starting to show a progressive weak look. Hope a compromise with the gfs happens vs. a full on gfs cave.
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good news bad news on the eps. bad news is it's coming in drier for the weekend thread good news is it loves i-70 for next weeks threat...and beyond.
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actually hoping the euro ens are bit north.... (wouldn't have expected that)
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Actually Columbus is around 10" but that includes the 2" it claims we get tomorrow. To be honest a gfs/euro blend would be awesome
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You're gonna piss off the wx gods, lol. Remember, this is now the 'driest' model and it's giving you 5". Only way to get this way more juiced is to amp it up and then we all know that risk. Still some room in between though.
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I mentioned yesterday that this seemed like a storm where the sweet spot might 'only' be 6-10". I think there is still opportunity for a little better, especially if the wetter warmer models want to meet half way with the euro.
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I'm sure as heck not going to scoff at 8-10" with no mixing. Especially when you consider we were riding a slop line, (even though it was 12-15")
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disagree with the 'quickly droping off' part. 4-5" all the way up to Toledo. actually a nice spread the wealth Ohio storm with the heaviest centered where discussed
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rest of state is widespread 4-5"
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Franklin County 2" on Friday 6-8" for weekend storm total 8-10" Axis of heaviest has moved south about 25 miles A line from Cincy to Chillicothe to Pittsburgh. No mixing issues anywhere near us.
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won't be any mixing issues anywhere near i-70....should be a good hit, possibly a bit drier though
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so far what I see on the euro, out 72, it'll hold serve if not end up further southeast than 00z.... still early but that's the early look
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looked a tad nw, but small enough to be noise from a couple overly-amped members. In fact there's a couple of members that take the low into northeast OH. Take those out and it's probably a tad se of the OP.
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Yea I just saw an animation. What do you think about these solutions that seem to take the low further north and then redevelop further south?
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ukie looks good but really wish I had a panel between 72 and 96hr. At 72 its a 1003 low in eastern OK, at 96 it's a 999 low in southern WV. Looks great but the models have been doing that funky move with the low getting dangerously close to OH and then reforming south and east. An 84 hr panel would shed some lght on that.
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GFS does it all over again next Tuesday....an almost IDENTICAL situation except it would be warmer for us.
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they were ok, but we still need a little less amping... but we're damn close and hopefully things don't go the wrong way.
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...someone should invite him over here. How awesome would it be to have a veteran Columbus met doing analysis for Central Ohio on here.
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lol.... I just asked the same thing.
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if you look at the panel at 90 hrs on tt you can see the low in Athens but you can also see it reforming on the TN//NC border....that takes over as the primary on the next frame and continues northeast up the apps. That's a probably a good sign that this might actually trend further south. still lots to work out. I originally thought we'd have answers after today's 12z runs.... scratch that. We have another 24 hours before we have a general idea of what's going to happen.
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essentially, if we want a gfs with more cold we need to root for the system to slow down a bit to allow the northern branch to get out front. The more they line up, the more likely some phasing occurs. That's what the gem is doing, it's phasing a bit down in the central plains which causes it to climb further north before it gets shoved east by the high.
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storm vista
