buckeye

3 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

 

Little talked about outside of forums, but the impact in central Ohio east, I'd actually put the storm up there with the blizzard of 78. The amount of ice and people without power for upwards of 2 weeks. Christmas day temps plummeted below zero. Was a bad time for everyone. We were fortunate enough to get the last generator within 50 miles of us thankfully. But the impact it had east of Columbus had to be up there.

My folks lived on the new albany / westerville border.    They lost power for a week as well, here in Westerville we got a snowstorm that transitioned to an icestorm, but the ice wasn't nearly as epic as is was for you guys....still did some major damage.   The gradient from epic heavy snow to raging ice storm to plain rain was something to behold.    Literally occurring within a couple of counties.    Then it got brutally cold....right in time for Christmas.   Horrible.

Our overall issue right now is the storm is trying to run between the departing high and the incoming high.   It's like our bananna high is too soft in the middle.

Just now, vespasian70 said:

Further east yes. I'm all for an Apps runner, but Dec 2004 has scarred me for life. lol

oh god, that's right....you guys were in the pure rain part of that.    That was crazy....  Dilly must have been 

Just now, vespasian70 said:

I hate seeing the bowling ball look fade away. Won't end well around here.

then again, f we can get a further south track to start this and turn up the apps instead of sending it through northern KY.......

anyone else noticing a trend for a more sw to ne trajectory of the snow shield vs. w to e?

scratch that on the fv3, it wasn't storm vista it was a link that I took from another thread.    Actually looks pretty good. well ok actually.   Looks like it favors the north west side of the i-71 corridor.  It's also way less expansive with the snow shield in general

Just now, dilly84 said:

Fv3 is actually south of the 0z run at 96hrs. I Can't see past that yet.

I have it on stormvista, trust me it ends up further into southeast OH.

btw, the ukie is actually a whiff at 132...goes out to sea off the southern MA coast.

fwiw, the gefs matches the OP pretty well.

3 minutes ago, vespasian70 said:

Why do I have a feeling 'backside snow' will be the most popular phrase in the thread this weekend? lol

I was thinking the other day that it's been forever since we had a rain changing to snow 'storm'.    I know it seems like it never happens but back in the day they seemed much more frequent.  And I'm not talking about 1" of rain followed by 1" of snow, I'm talking about a changeover that results in a winter storm warning.    It's been a long time since we've seen that but we have seen them.   I remember one in January '94 (or '95 lol...terrible with years), that went from rain to snow and counties to the north like Delaware and Union went to blizzard warnings..

looks like the fv3 goes to the nw trend side.    I can't tell how good the backside stuff is but definitely starts out warmer than the gfs and further nw than the 6z

2 minutes ago, vespasian70 said:

Too suppressed?

I'd love to see a 132 hr frame, hard to tell.   Looking at the 5h it would definitely do some northward climbing before heading ots.  Of course I'm now disecting the ukie... enough of that

3 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said:

2 models were better, one worse so far for 12z.  On to the Euro.  

good to see you posting again

The ukie looks awesome, 1003 low in n. GA getting ready to head north

the problem right now is this storm needs to get further east into the TN valley before it starts making the ne movement.   That warm air rushes in about the time the crawl north from w.TN into KY begins.  I guess that means we need to root for a quicker northern stream or a slower southern stream

Just now, Steve said:

Maybe luck is on our side this time.. we went from 3 pages to 10 pages in a week!!

yea hopefully we have more than a backside crusty coating to show for it too

Just now, vespasian70 said:

Luckily we have a ways to go. If that ice signal continues for us I'm rooting for an ORD to DTW special. I'll take the rain and flash freeze instead.

AMEN....  I'll give it to them with a ribbon.  Misery =  icestorm power outtages with brutal cold incoming.

Not sure if the TT maps are screwy but the 12zGEM actually improved with the snowfall for us from 00z.

5 minutes ago, vespasian70 said:

If it's going to happen it will be later today or tomorrow. If we hold serve or tick south between now and Weds night's runs - game on. I think that Thurs/Fri event is the wild card setting the stage.

I always felt, and still do, that Wednesdays 12z runs should give us a good idea.   We'll see if the nw trend is a collective bump or real by then.   

Just now, vespasian70 said:

Initially I thought this GFS run would be better (i.e. south), but it cuts harder into Pa.

i think the best news we can take is it wasn't a major bump north, but it was north.   Still time and reason, (not wishcasting), to have this go back to earlier further south adjustments.   I've seen this before around this time frame where the models start amping only to dial back again and quite honestly it usually happens with our big storms.     It's intersting, (knock on wood), we haven't seen any really big north jogs as in taking us completely out of the game, (in terms of primarily rain).   That tells me there is a ceiling for how far north and strong this can get... I would bet we've seen that ceiling, (granted verification may end up being the ceiling).

here's to staying positive.... I'm gonna need a few.

29 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said:

I'd be concerned about the north/west trends, especially for areas along I-70, which are now literally on the line.  Another 50-100 miles north and that zone misses out almost completely.  Same story as always, really.  It's still early, so time to watch it, but it already seems like a classic screw job taking shape. 

yea, definitely a concern.... I feel like ugly things might happen today trend-wise, or maybe it was bad shrimp last night.      Still have to realize that with such a stout high to the north and a relatively fast flow with a storm on a pos. tilted trough, this definitely could go through a cycle on the models where they overamp it, and then as we close into 72 hours or so, weaken it back to earlier runs as a bit weaker and more progressive. 

The point is you could make a strong meterological argument either way.   But yea, today I'm fearing the nw bump.   

9 minutes ago, vespasian70 said:

Waiting on buckeye's uncle Ukie report ...

I wish I had a 132hr plot...but at 120 it's further south and at 144 it's way east on the ne coast, so it looks to have abandoned any NW moves at least.

When I saw that icon run my first thought was why does this have to be the icon? Lol.    Not only does it put down like 18", it had winds well over 30mph,  a classic blizzard.   

Nice to see the gem come south....still needs work.   It looks like this is turning into a West to east storm unable to cut nw.   So question remains what factors end up winning out to push the trajectory more north or south.  The low can only strengthen so much without room for the trough to go neg.   I wonder if tonight runs were the north ceiling?  Wishful thinking maybe.

Then again I wouldn't be surprised to see euro bump north again.  How many times have we seen a pattern where the 12z goes south and the 00z goes north and seems to repeat for several runs.  This old man ain't staying up for it either.

imagine if timing lines up with one of these deep troughs and one of these pieces of energy that keep flying in from the north and south....  imagine a triple phaser with that airmass /\ available .   

1 hour ago, JayPSU said:

18Z GFS with a move north.  I’ve seen this movie before, I know how it ends.

Sure, it could be a trend north, or maybe the fv3 is foretelling a future trend south..... who knows, but forget the snow/rain depiction.  Anytime ma nature wants to bring a low from Oklahoma to central WV with a 1047 arctic banana high pressing southeast, sign me up, I don't care what the gfs says it's going to do on the surface.   That is not a setup that screams nw trend, IMveryHO.

That weird skip where the WV low suddenly disappears and then reappears in SC says a lot about the resistance this is going to have trying to come northeast.  I could even see a scenario where we rain and then a secondary forms on the front that ends up being the main show.   Lot's to work out here.

I'm also a bit intrigued with the Thursday system.   Nam shows snow, icon shows snow, ggem shows snow, but gfs and euro are bit too warm.   

we all know that it's nothing more than a snapshot in time....but as of todays 12z runs, they were awesome.    Euro bumped back south to put i70 back as the axis of heaviest snow, widespread 10-15" amounts from Dayton to Pittsburgh.     Icon looks similar with 15" amounts.   Gfs not as sexy but still very nice.  Uk came in line with gfs.  GGEM so far out on it's own it either scores the coupe of the century or get's the dunce cap, (but even it gives us 4-6" as bad as it looks).    Then they all bring the arctic hammer right behind it, close -10 degrees.

No celebration yet....still everything that can go wrong is on the table.   I still think suppression is the biggest potential party-spoiler.   

00z euro bumped north, but has some interesting results that remind me of some of the local craziness of the Dec'04 winter storm.     For instance, per the euro, northern Franklin County gets 16" of snow, southern Franklin County gets 6" plus some sort of frozen slop.  Delaware on north getting close to the 20" mark...Fayette, Fairfield, south probably a massive icestorm.  Of course it's one of many runs and bumps to come, but still an interesting snapshot.

Probably won't know confidently until thursday 00z where this is likely to go and whether it's likely rain, ice, snow, or the combo platter.

Euro bumped north.  I checked on WB and it never gets above freezing during the 2" of qpf that falls across parts of southern Ohio.   Haven't heard much about an ice storm component to this....is that a real possibility? that would be