buckeye

Man I just ran through the 6z and what a disappointment to see the gfs 6z hold serve....I would have bet 10" of seasonal snowfall it was going to trend south. thing to watch for is that magical time just around 48-56 hrs on the models. That's the time when you get that initial move north northeast out of OK and we are at our most vulnerable for the wtod. Nam had some good and bad. Bad was it came further north, but good was it's starting to show snow wrap around right as the temps crash. You can see it really well on the snowfall maps. We really don't want to see this low get too close to the OH river, that's almost an assured recipe for mixing here. Central KY is about the farthest north we want it. I have a sinking feeling that we won't feel any more confident after the 12z runs.... The lead up to this is soooooo classic for our area....and there's a history of both good and bad outcomes

Euro is not going to change inside 60 hours....that didn't happen other than some wobbles. Now we wait for the gfs to fold goodnight

Euro

This hobby is like crack.,,wth am I doing up at 1230 waiting for the euro? I have a breakfast meeting in the morning and I'm gonna have sand bags under my eyes. And sure enough someone will say, "I hear we're suppose to get a snowstorm". To which ill reply, "really? how much they calling for?"

We taint good

For no other reason than killing time before the euro, I'll mention the jma which has a 1002 low over n. Georgia.

TT uses bright red to indicate their highest snowfall rate.....that red may very well be snow.

That's the favored track tonight and yet we're tainting like heck on all the models

Probably only about a 30% chance this is a clean snowstorm for CMH. Models haven't moved the needle enough to make me confident that we won't have significant mixing. The euro is on an island right now....strange. Still some time though.

Agree...i'm running through these maps drooling over the low tracks and yet we're struggling precip issues. The gfs is the most confounding. This isn't back in december, when we had great tracks but no cold air. We have plenty of cold, both antecedent and fresh coming in..I

Huge bust potential just in Franklin county alone. Imagine having to make a forecast.

Gfs has a similar storm coming in 2 days later. That alone should make any solution suspicious that allows the low to dig and amplify. I think late trends will be for a flatter colder solution.

Gem is a lot like the gfs but a bit southeast of it.

Gfs is stubborn... Also that would be a nasty ice storm

What is he saying will be the predominant precip type?

No one is wrong at this point....but I'm not a fan of his because he's not a snow weenie met. How can you be a met and not love snow? Lol

Love the way the low gets to central KY and heads due east....that would make for longer duration

It'll show it as rain....but ignore and pay attention to the 5h and slp. That would be a crushing.

I know it's sick.... Started this fall.

This is a favorite set up for the nam to want to over amp....and this is the timeframe it loves to do it. So look at it this way, that's the best it got. Honestly putting aside the fact that it's the nam, there were no red flags with that run.

We're not going to mix beyond maybe some nuisance embedded sleet if a low travels from ARK to WV with a fresh Arctic high pushing. I don't care what the soundings say.

So the 18z euro still looks really good. A little further north than the 12z but still would not have mixing issues in central Ohio. This tells me the 00z run should be pretty good. I have a stormvista subscription and I've been following the 06 and 18z euro runs. They've been pretty good indicators of how the next run is going to trend. For instance yesterday's 18z had the sudden southeast shift that occurred at 00z, and today's 06z still showed,the southeast solution. Both times successfully predicting the next trend.

Someone over in the NE forum said when the icon and the jma agree, it's called the ww2 rule.

I think it's the timeframe when the low goes from n. ARK to southern IN that it gets screwy. Then suddenly it's over s. WV. Maybe that's posdible maybe this does go further NW, but there's no way that solution verifies.

Check out the 500map on the 18z and, compare it to the 12z. Heights are actually lower on the 18z throughout the run. ....yet the,surface low is further north and warmer?