buckeye

I'm beginning to doubt this will be a huge storm for anyone in the forum.  6-10 might be the high mark wherever that happens.   I've followed weather for many years and the one thing all big dogs have in common is they are usually sniffed out within 5 days and models begin to hone in details.  Models don't lose the threat or jump it around or find five different ways to make it snow in the same place.  Big dogs aren't complicated.  This is a cluster 4 days out...the two most consistent models have totally different solutions. 

Less clarity tonight than 24 hours ago.   If euro holds serve you pretty much have to weight it heavily based strictly on consistency.     Good night

Uk held serve.

We are in such a progressive flow, wound up solutions make no sense.  Look how quickly the gfs has another storm at 150.  Nothing will be able to amplify.

Not buying the gem taking the low from Oklahoma to just south of cincy and then back south east to southern WV. I bet tomorrow it's weaker and it's Oklahoma, TN, WV....and a decent hit for us. 

The gem is a hot mess.  I don't understand how a low pressure travels so far north on a pos tilted trough with strong high pressure pushing south and no semblance of a southeast ridge.. 

All the wound up north solutions look goofy.....but what do I know..lol

Drastically different

4 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

ICON with an extreme north jump. May be a rain storm on it lol.

Just saw that....polar opposite of what the nam would do.

I realize I'm extrapolating an 84 hr nam...but for no other reason then it being a perfect example of what would not only save us but might even go too much in the opposite direction.  PV pressing down hard.   A subtle version of that trend is what we need.

20 minutes ago, Ji said:

2 hours ago, buckeye said:

smarta**.....You know I actually have reason to root for DC now....my daughter moved there for her job this fall and she definitely has the snow weenie gene.   
 

If we were still one big forum...you would be insufferable right now

I blame climo....that  and spending years posting with one of the greatest forum trolls in internet history.

3 hours ago, Ji said:

the 3 towns that irk me the most when they get more snow is Raleigh, Richmond and Columbus

smarta**.....You know I actually have reason to root for DC now....my daughter moved there for her job this fall and she definitely has the snow weenie gene.   

53 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

The Super Bowl storm may have been one of the worst "north trends" inside 60 hours I had ever seen. Lima,Findlay ete ete all went from 12-18 inches to almost nothing in hours. This is more of a "cutter" than that one but the example remains.

This storm is a real stinker for I-70 in many respects. For snowstorm, it needs to be weak and wimpy 4 inch CMH special. If it develops into a 12+ inch beast, it is rain. Then you have current trends, which is in the middle of that.........I-70 ice storm. Probably the best to be beast or a wimp. Don't middle around.

edit: I am waiting for JB to declare victory soon and say he was just off on the locations........that is the one downside to the pattern change we knew was coming. JB flubbed up in style pretty bad.

I think the best screwjob analog for this storm would be February 13,2007.  VERY similar set up.  In that situation we were suppose to get a foot of snow but it quickly changed to a sleet fest.  Indiana, (Hoosier), got himself a full blown blizzard.    I've been looking at those maps.   The set up is similar but the main difference I found was the ridge axis out west was more broad and further west.   There was more room for that storm to deepen and gain latitude....not by much, but it didn't take much.

So let's just go ahead and shine some light on the 800lb gorilla in the corner of the room.

Cause we're all thinking it....

it's 8am Saturday morning, sleet starts pinging on the windows....an hour later rain drops mix in....by 10am we have a steady driving rain with 30mph winds and 37 degrees.  Meanwhile Marion, points north are under a blizzard warning.   

Face your fears gentlemen....face your fears.

Just now, vespasian70 said:

No, I haven't.

I haven't either, but I would bet sleet is the bigger precip type in the transition zone.   Just a hunch.

1 minute ago, vespasian70 said:

To stay out of deep doo doo we need deep thunder.

 

anyone have verification scores on this bad boy?

2 minutes ago, vespasian70 said:

Something has got to shake loose soon - either this storm cuts north or heads south otherwise we are in deep doo doo.

Has anyone dug into soundings to see if the freezing rain is a real threat or is it going to be mostly sleet in the area between snow and rain?

it's subtle  but I thought the 5h was a nice improvement on the 18z in that the hp/northern stream was pushing further south and lowering heights in front of the storm much better.  You can really see it starting at 90 hours on tt.    If that were to continue, the eventual result would be a further east and south solution.

29 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

Pretty comical reading the difference in forecast discussion between ILN, CLE, and PIT. PIT says its trending south, other two say north. But more comical is the different forecasts between me (Knox county CLE), Newark ILN, and Coshocton PIT. 3 counties border each other with different forecasts, cle has me all snow, Newark snow changing to rain, and a mix of sn, ip, and zr in coshocton. You'd think they'd work in some sort of tandem on big systems. Why is it they dont?

they will once it gets to a point of posting advisories etc.    Right now it's still speculative   You have to remember this thing is still 4 days out from getting it's act together in the southern plains.   In front of it there will be two disturbances crossing the country between now and then.   The general idea of a storm is solid...  the details are as clear as mud.

fwiw jma looks like a solid snow storm.  Takes low to  southern WV.

Best take from the 12z runs is that there are no outlier nw cranked solutions.  The only outlier solutions are much further south.  I think our ceiling is set, now we hope for this beast to settle down just a tiny bit.   Granted I'd rather be in Findlay or Mansfield's shoes right now.

2.3" of qpf

still 4 days out....lot's of time for wobbles....and literally we are a wobble away from epic snow and a wobble away from screwed.

Seriously, can we ever NOT ride the edge??   Unreal.   50 miles south and we're gold.

11" in dublin.....  3" in groveport

looks better for sw OH but worse for se OH.   cmh is about the same.   There's that sw to ne trajectory showing up again.....hmmm

from what i can see so far on stormvista.... should be slightly better than 00z....