buckeye

yes, you and pondo kept telling me it was coming and when it hits it'll be like a wall.....that was an understatement. I honestly think the precip rates never letting up may have helped it stay snow.

ok so Dilly is good cop.... I'm bad cop

gefs is bad. You'd expect it to be almost a carbon copy of the OP at this range but man, most of the members take a track right up the ohio river. Just more plot thickner if the euro holds.

Yes! That is the storm I could not recall. I remember we were on the line with every model and the nam was not playing ball, it kept showing the 850 go north of us. I made a big deb downer post that morning . It ended up being a nowcast and we got thumped overnight with like 9 or 10". If I recall it stayed snow even in places in southern OH.

hmmmm, I remember the really big accum numbers starting to show up 2 days out. Granted, no one was taking them seriously including Ganahl, but I do remember very well some clown maps showing 2' right up i-71.

in the "scraping the bottom of the barrel file".... the navgem is a safe hit....also weaker.

the ukie is out. Not sure what to think without seeing snowfall maps but it takes a 997 low to central KY then east northeast. Could very well be warmer than 00z I suspect.

that's hard because when they say forecasters were calling for somethinig, it's subjective. I usually don't listen to forecasters. I do remember model runs.

oh no doubt, if there were only one model that we could have on our side....absolutely it would be the euro. What bothers me is the gfs and ggem not moving in the slightest direction towards it, in fact the gem got worse. It makes me fairly confident the euro is going to crack north at 12z. Hope I'm wrong.

here's my happy thoughts: 1.it's snowing out 2.ggem is trying to throw together an app runner at 168...has some gfs support but its much futher east. there ya go

I'll gladly choke down some crow and you guys can bump troll me if this all turns around...just keeping it real. My pessimism is only wrt the uk and euro which I've lost faith in.

Sorry in advance for this but: I fully expect to lose the euro wrt a big snowstorm. I won't pull the trigger on what I expect until I see the euro, but right now if you're being honest with yourself and you live in CMH area the forecast probably is going to be some version of a period of snow to sleet to start with a possible complete changeover to plain rain for several hours before turning back to a period of sleet/snow. Whatever we get after the change back is what's on the ground for the arctic air incoming. It sucks but if you dial down now and set your expectations according to what the models are telling us and what we know climo is around here with regard to these close call storms out of the sw.... you won't be disappointed, only surprised. Frankly I think this is a congrats CLE, Mansfield and Findlay deal. If the euro only slightly ticks north or holds and ukie holds.... then I give up, my god we're like 48 hrs away from precip and the euro is suppose to be the sharpest tack in the shed.

Gem appears to have gone further north actually. its' all up to a 12 hour old euro run now.

Oh trust me, there are a lot folks walking around here carrying rumors of a foot of snow on Saturday. Some of the local mets are at fault too for planting the seed. Of course the book on this has yet to be written.....soooo

I'd expect to see the low weaker and further south for that to happen...unless it's due to more rain taking over

yea, lost a lot of our back end love on this run.... kind of opposite of what the nam showed

gem looks about the same too. I'm starting to wonder if the euro is going to be the caver. I mean we're inside 60 hours now and are still as confused as to what's going to fall from the sky on Saturday as we were 5 days ago.

pretty close though....any differnces are noise. verdict: no change

I think it's just faster which makes it seem further north.

Don't forget, if the gfs sucks we blame the shut down...if good, we credit new sampling data

yup, the model switching around the center point of lowest pressure.... it' being non-commital lol

the path of that low from hr 54-66 is insane. Interesting because on SV it's more of a straight path east

icon definitely south looking at the snow maps. Let's see how that translates on TT

icon should be better watching it unfold on storm vista it definitely has a more west to east trajectory, never getting too far north of the KY/TN border. But SV has pretty crappy graphics too.

that can also work against us.... stronger storm has a stronger wtod...plus a stronger storm is more likely to gain more latitude.