buckeye

That would be nice for cmh. I have no feeling either way whether this heads further south and shears out or comes north and amped. Years ago you could bet the house on a northward trend. Last few years it seems the sheared out weaker trends have been winning out. I see great meteorological arguments for both outcomes. one thing hasn’t changed, the outcome probably won’t come into focus until 72 hrs out.

When I think brutal cold, two periods come to mind, Dec ‘89 and Jan ‘94. The ‘89 outbreak had CMH hit a low of -18. Jan ‘94 -22 with areas in southeast OH hitting the minus 30s.

this I was thinking the same. 492dm line over head and I check the 2m temps and yea it's cold, but not what you would expect. Running through the gfs, I think the coldest temp here over the next couple weeks is -5 ish, and the Canadian, (which loves to exaggerate the cold in medium range), doesn't even have us going below zero. Duration might be the most notable aspect, not so much the severity of the cold itself. Been awhile since we had 2 weeks of continuous subfreezing temps.

yep, probably an i-80 nw ohio/chicago/detroit special followed up by a TN valley slider. That's how we roll here in the c'bus.

I’ll be posting a bit, just finishing some calculations

/\ this is the most optimistic post you will see from me

snowfall totals for gefs and eps through 360 are pretty paltry for the MA and I-95 in spite of a favorable 500mb look. Actually heavier for GL and OV in spite of a further east trough axis...but still nothing great here either. I think most likely we go from this coming warmth to cad for a week or so and then the trough exits stage right and we go back into a wavy pattern of warm/wet cold dry. Best hope of snow outside of some nw flow stuff is a surprise storm on a front transitioning of the warm to cold or vice versa. Something like that might not get picked up on models until inside of 150 hrs.

Rougher for them if they don't score anything in that pattern.

the big one for that was the massive HECS in January that buried the MA and NE, that one threw a slow moving conveyor belt of snow east to west across the state....we almost picked up a foot from that one and it was a complete surprise, even the morning of we were forecasted 1-3"

it would have been fun if this place and the internet existed back then....watching the Josh meltdowns would have been awesome. #darkjosh

Wow, no wonder you never mention that year....even Columbus beat Detroit 46".

And it’s not really so much about overall snow total for the winters but as you said, it seemed the snow cover persisted. We didn’t need to have 100 inches of snow because the snow we did get stuck around

That period really was amazing and is what really turned me into a snow weenie. It’s not my imagination or cherry picked memories. When we moved from the Philly area to Central Ohio in 1977 I was in 7th grade. We walked to school and in the winter months, the walk was through snow on a regular basis, sometimes with brutal cold. Those type of winters seemed to become normal as we would skate on our pond across the street build sled runs and dump water on them overnight so they would freeze up like a toboggan shoot and build ramps for our sleds to jump onto the frozen pond. When it did get warm enough during a January thaw, it often came with melting snow, fog, and drizzle, and that was what seemed to be abnormal… whereas winters since then it’s the snow and cold that has become abnormal. im just glad I was able to experience that. I hope someday my grandkids will get the same experience.

just messing with you....

You sound like an ole fashioned CMH snow weenie… …it’s happening Josh…you’re in denial right now but fear not, the next stage is acceptance

Saturn's ring going negative?

Ok that's embarrassing.... no wonder the snow gods hate me, I'm a damn ingrate.

I don't recall that much about '13-'14 here. Was that the year there was a big cutter that went up through eastern IN sometime between xmas and new years and that's what really kicked off winter? If so, we were on the warm side of that one, I remember that one was a kick in the nuts, especially since it was around or shortly after the holidays.

...todays map says don't bother wasting your faith

for the Central Ohio locals....especially the ones like myself who have been around a long time, sorry to see Bob Nunnally passed away. Back in the day he use to do the weekend weather on local NBC. I remember watching the Saturday evening before the March '93 superstorm, he was the first to mention we could see a blizzard out of this even though everyone else was keeping it much further east. Sure enough I woke up the next morning to blizzard warnings. Granted, we only got about 4" of wind swept powder here, but didn't have to go too far east to really get buried. I met him once too, he was a super friendly, good heart. RIP

these one day brutal cold shots interrupting our 40s and 50s are annoying as sh#t. Like getting a bucket of ice water dumped on you .

the positive pna is about the only thing thats keeping us from a full on Dorch.

DT is your man this winter. Riding the positive TNH pattern for the winter which is what drove the winter of '13-'14. Good luck!

that's the kick in the nuts, and then when you bend over in agony the club to the back of your head is winter dragging through April.

Yea looking at the mjo it looks like it's been dancing in the warm phases for sometime and will continue to do so....and here we are facing subzero windchills tomorrow. OTOH the AO, NAO, and PNA, , (at least the gefs versions), seem to be behaving like what you'd expect with our actual weather. It seems like the opposite of recent winters, this time the cold is really fighting back. The eastern trough is stubborn as hell too, granted just a bit too far east for what's ideal for this sub. Personally it's too damn early for this. The ground is already frozen beyond workability. Last few winters the ground rarely froze beyond a week or two and it didn't occur until Jan/Feb. Maybe this is global warmings version of Dec 1989 and just like then, once the cold exits, winter's over. I wish.