buckeye

Just now, dilly84 said:

50 miles south of last nights. Nearly takes cmh out of heavy snow. Takes me out of it for sure. Line from Cincinnati to Pitt down to Athens 10-12". North of that it quickly drops off.

disagree with the 'quickly droping off' part.   4-5" all the way up to Toledo.   actually a nice spread the wealth Ohio storm with the heaviest centered where discussed

rest of state is widespread 4-5"

Franklin County

2" on Friday

6-8" for weekend storm   

total 8-10"

Axis of heaviest has moved south about 25 miles   A line from Cincy to Chillicothe to Pittsburgh.

No mixing issues anywhere near us.

won't be any mixing issues anywhere near i-70....should be a good hit, possibly a bit drier though

so far what I see on the euro, out 72, it'll hold serve if not end up further southeast than 00z.... still early but that's the early look

2 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

GEFS is reassuring 

looked a tad nw, but small enough to be noise from a couple overly-amped members.  In fact there's a couple of members that take the low into northeast OH.  Take those out and it's probably a tad se of the OP.

3 minutes ago, OHweather said:

12z UK takes the primary to just east of Charleston...not sure on temp profiles. 

Yea I just saw an animation.   What do you think about these solutions that seem to take the low further north and then redevelop further south?

ukie looks good but really wish I had a panel between 72 and 96hr.     At 72 its a 1003 low in eastern OK, at 96 it's a 999 low in southern WV.   Looks great but the models have been doing that funky move with the low getting dangerously close to OH and then reforming south and east.   An 84 hr panel would shed some lght on that.

GFS does it all over again next Tuesday....an almost IDENTICAL situation except it would be warmer for us.  

5 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

I said tomorrow's 12z runs SHOULD start to have the general track. However, today's runs have been great if you're in the i70 corridor.

they were ok, but we still need a little less amping...   but we're damn close and hopefully things don't go the wrong way.

...someone should invite him over here.  How awesome would it be to have a veteran Columbus met doing analysis for Central Ohio on here.

2 minutes ago, HighTechEE said:

Dudes!  Jym Ganahl is in the house!   Edit, nope not him, a fan...

lol.... I just asked the same thing.   

6 minutes ago, JymGanahlRocks said:

Ha! Nope, not the real deal. Just my favorite local met growing up in the 80s/90s 

As a snow weenie in Columbus, you gotta love Jym.   He gets more excited about snowstorms than I do.  He moved to Columbus in 78 following the Blizzard.  He often tells the story that after the Blizzard caught so many people here off guard, the local news channel, (I think it was NBC), fired their met and specifically searched for a met from a colder market.   He was working in Iowa and that's the main reason he got hired.

sorry for the thread jack  Back to the storm....

2 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

It just updated. Low goes from Central ky to around Athens. Just need 25 miles SE and we're golden with the gem

if you look at the panel at 90 hrs on tt you can see the low in Athens but you can also see it reforming on the TN//NC border....that takes over as the primary on the next frame and continues northeast up the apps.     That's a probably a good sign that this might actually trend further south.

still lots to work out.  I originally thought we'd have answers after today's 12z runs....  scratch that.  We have another 24 hours before we have a general idea of what's going to happen.

essentially, if we want a gfs with more cold we need to root for the system to slow down a bit to allow the northern branch to get out front.   The more they line up, the more likely some phasing occurs.  That's what the gem is doing, it's phasing a bit down in the central plains which  causes it to climb further north before it gets shoved east by the high. 

Just now, dilly84 said:

What site are you using that models update so fast

storm vista

is this THE gym ganahl.... or just a fan??

gem still too far north, but trended south

1 minute ago, dilly84 said:

GFS same scenario. Great track. Ptypes screwed up. Has the low go from TN to eastern Kentucky but shows zr and rain for i70 south. Guess we're throwing out the ptype maps

I'll take my chances with a track like that.    Pretty close to identical to the 6z too

on storm vista it's like 2'+ along i-70.  

<no.weenie>I'm guessing the algorithm is screwy on TT <no.weenie>

Just now, dilly84 said:

Most aren't making sense to me though. Perfect track but ptypes messed up on all of em. It takes the low from southern ky to WV, so why it wouldn't be laying down 12" of snow for us I don't understand.

It would lay down snow.   At the point it crosses into WV and gets closer to the OH river, we might mix up here, but that track as depicted with all other features on the map is a raging snowstorm for us.

1 minute ago, dilly84 said:

Icon looks nice. Real nice thunderstorms across central Ohio all the way past Mansfield.

It's a great run....ignore the precip type...makes no sense.   Check out panel 87hr.  Have you ever seen a  snowstorm with that kind of rain/snow line in the middle of the comma head?    That snow line would most likely go from south of Pitt to bloomington IN.....NOT Youngstown to Indy .    Especially with the low in south central KY and a pressing arctic high.   

Always a good sign when OHweather pops in with commentary!

Any word on DeepThunder 6z?

3 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

Idk. Look north to me. Quite a few have most of Ohio with rain

You must be looking at the wrong one.  Gefs and it's members are the best run we've seen wrt this cluster storm yet.