buckeye

FV3 is not huge diff, but slightly nw. I've noticed as we've tracked this over the past week, for some odd reason, (probably coincidence), the 12z runs like nw bumps and the 18-z-00z runs like the southeast bumps.

I think it actually has something to do with the 40th parallel, (which is where i-70 goes across central OH), and the subterranean geothermal coupling of the earth's crust where the gravitational vectors align with the lunar path. ....at least that's what Angry told me.

Putting this storm aside for a sec... ....there is growing concensus for a storm on most of the models next week, (5-6 days out). Looks like a possible app runner. Euro has a monster that crushes seastern OH/WV, GEM is further west, and it looks like the ICON is throwing it's hat in too. Interesting times ahead. Might have to go to costco and pick up the 50 gallon drum of Folgers.

looks about the same.... I like the fact that it's showing more of a 'fade' to lower amounts north and south. Leads me to believe the backside might perform better once temps crash, spreading the wealth.

the canadian group, (gem rgem), are probably going to be the nw amped ceiling on runs. Not too concerned...yet...I think Will(met) over in the NE forum once said he doesn't use the rgem outside of 24 hours.

that's good but the 2m temp line isn't really going to be our potential problem. Find that 850 line, that will tell a lot more. Like I said in the other post, it practically sit on i-70.

very close, I don't think I saw a snowfall output since WB doesn't carry 6z 0r 18z. I'm thinking if it was further nw it was still in the 'noise' range. Maybe someone else has that info. SV snowmaps are horrible

things definitely look better than they did 24hrs ago, but damn, I'm still not confident at all on a total snow event for CMH area. Confidence boosted that we'll have a lot more frozen than wet, but per usual we are so damn close to the line it's insane. Looping through these runs, most of them have the 850 line literally lining up along the 40degree lat line which basically cuts through Columbus, for at least a few hours. I don't think freezing rain is a big threat simply because it's hard to get good accretion with 30 degrees and heavy rain. Sleet to some degree or another is definitely in the cards though for probably most of Franklin County. So here's my gut call on this looking back at similar situations and based on years of watching this stuff unfold here. If we can hold this current look or something razor close to it through 00z, then I think odds favor a good surprise vs. a bad one. Typically* on close calls like this, (4th and goal ball on the 1" line), we find away to get it in ugly, whether that may be aided by high precip rates or an underestimated push of cold. Now if models start going nw, (delay of game call), well you know.... *Typically, but I still wear the scars from Feb 13 2007, a very similar set up. cue Hoosier in 3...2...1...

Ukie should be good. ,eastern KY to Philly track

It's a "break the glass in emergency" model...I know that model suite well.

At this point I think we're all just numb to the swings.

You guys have to remember that those euro snow maps also included 2" for today in a lot of places.

Amazing how close that gfs snow map matches the euro.

I'll never roll my eyes again when someone uses the excuse that we need to wait for better sampling. I always thought that was a weenie thing.

Someone needs to tell Angrysummons that apparently all the models now have feedback issues.

Rgem is a nice hit now ....lol

We can still score very nice with a few realistic tweaks on that nam run. Euro probably already had it figured out.

Icon wagons south too it looks like.

I took the plunge 20 years ago....best decision of my life.

Wouldn't worry about snow amounts. The takeaway is whether we're going to start seeing a trend.

Could see this change begin at 18z even though it wasn't apparent on the surface. Way less phasing and a more pos. tilted trough = weaker, faster, more south. Quite honestly this looks like the nam starting to align with the euro.

You need to eventually open your own forecasting biz

So are you in private forecasting now?

Thanks OH,, all makes good sense. I appreciate your insight and stopping in to let us know... I imagine you're slightly busy right now. . Good luck with all your forecasts!