buckeye

burst?

Can't recall the last time we had a high wind watch here in Columbus area.

I'm with you guys. My original comment was a reply to baum who made reference to Ohio peeps 'hiding' in here. Like I said, it ain't hiding, it's just our simple way of narrowing the focus in this massive sub. Plus, we've all seen in past storm threads how fast they can turn into a dumpster fire when the threat is still several days out and models are still honing in on a track. There are very few threats that turn out mutually well for both Columbus and Chicago. It just is what is.

You're right, touche'

Whose hiding? We're just trying to bring some semblance of order to the most geographically fcked up sub forum on the board. Kemtucky to the Upper Pennisula to Milwaukee to St.Louis....thats not a sub forum its a sub continent.

<Angrysummons>meh, nothing to see here...that was all sleet and optical feedback issues<Angrysummons>

true As far as tonight. I think 2" minimum is a lock if it comes in as snow....and that's mainly because it comes in with such a thump. How much more depends on how quickly the warm takes over. What's interesting is that usually heavy thumping precip stays as snow until the thumping let's up and the dynamic cooling ends. Most models are showing a pretty steady and heavy onslaught of precip coming in like a wall without many breaks. I think high end could top 6" if it's a strong relentless thumping. Going to be strange to see heavy snow transition to heavy rain. Usually don't see that, it's usually heavy snow transitioning to sleet and then light rain or drizzle. Should be interesting if nothing else. Not a good sleeping night.

so OHweather, an actual meteorologist, gives his time to put together the potential scenarios for this event and this is your feedback? ...and you wonder why most folks here in our sub consider you a d-bag.

Wednesday morning rush hour gonna be fun

yea, kind of crazy. Euro sticking with 6-7" across franklin county. We're inside 48 hours and we have a range between 0 and 15". Not only is there a discrepency in totals, but also where the band of heaviest sets up. Some show it over southeastern OH and some over sw or central OH. Models have been unbelievably putrid this winter. In fact sometimes I think the only technology that hasn't improved in the last 10 years is weather modeling.

NAM'D! if only.....

January 1999 is a great example locally. That low tracked near Chicago and we got all snow. By the time the warm air took over we were left with freezing drizzle, after about 9". Of course this is no where near as dynamic a system as that was and the HP was probably stronger too. Regardless, whether we get snow or not out of this, there are lots of examples of accumulating snows out ahead of a low taking an imperfect track for us. Not at all unusual. I mean this is basic meteorology, I would think even Angry would understand it.

Ummm Plenty of waa snows occur with low tracks well to our west.

exactly, sure it's a long shot but there's nothing complicated about it. I mean it's not like we're dealing with model feedback issues etc. It's simply all about timing in a race between a departing high and incoming moisture. The fact that models are starting to see more front end frozen as the 60 to 72 hr window approaches, is something worth watching, trend-wise, if nothing else.

Remember the good old days....e e rule? Starting to get a little interesting. Euro and nam jumping to the same solution 2.5 days out. Have to see whether the gfs wants to play ball too.

Heh, euro thumps us with 8" before the change to rain Wednesday.

I keep expecting to see the mjo chart suddenly change to show us going into the cod or back tracking to 7...and yet it only gets stronger into 8 and 1 with each update. Not only that, but the SOI is crashing. JB does sound defeated but a few days after his epic meltdown in January, everything switched to a colder look. I wonder if models will suddenly snap back like that. If not, than yea, the mjo is certainly not ruling the pattern now. As of now, the rest of Feb looks like a typical hum drum depressing, uneventful, gross Ohio Feb.

the extended is rapidly turning into a dumpster fire.... starting with the late weekend event that now looks like it's heading north and leaving us with light rain. After that signs that the se ridge starts winning the battle. I just hope it goes ape sh*t crazy if it's going to ruin snow chances....go big or go away.

Lots of stuff going on in the 3 to 9 day range. Like 4 systems coming thru. Models are all over the place. First one looks to be weak and slide under us. Next one is stronger and takes a nice track with most models getting a low to WV. Gfs, gem, and icon all give us a moderate snow for that one. The euro has a great track but there's virtually no cold sector precip with it. Then more threats along the baroclinic boundary after that.

Models now all over the place with the weekend system. GGEM is the only wound up cutter solution now. Euro is pretty much a whiff under us and GFS is kind of in between.

Grass already covered here. Should be a nice little pre-deluge snow event.

More from "glass-half-full" buckeye, The euro takes the mjo into 8 on Tuesday and now the gfs has it moving into 8 by end of week, (although looping it back out and back in again). Point is the gfs is correcting to a quicker move into 8 and euro is moving faster to it as well. All of that in combination with some hints that the endless cutter pattern the models were all showing over the last few days, is looking less "cutterish", has one of my eyebrows raised. (just one though).

Fwiw, 06 eps significantly shifted the Friday threat south taking the low thru the TN Valley. Often the 6z and 18z eps do a good job of showing trends for the 12z and 00z. I guess we'll see. In the meantime....

gfs has 4 cutters over the next 2 weeks. That brings us to Feb 24th. Yes, this may be the worst collective winter forecasting failure that I can recall. It's like JB became a virus and it went epidemic in the meterology world. The only thing he has going for him is that this time he's not alone in failure. Don S., DT, HM, and a plethra of knowlegable mets on this site all crashed and burned. Per usual JB refuses to call it what it is and tries to piece together some kind of claim that his forecast was on target. It's reminiscent of his infamous "I nailed the pattern at 500mb", excuse. It's like watching someone try to build a tower out of jello while they convince you to keep watching just a little bit longer because it's almost there. He had Jan 20th thru Feb 15th as the pinnacle of winter's brutality, of course that was after the first half of January failed. When it became apparent that the PV visit was only going to be a glancing blow and mostly to our friends from Chicago on north, he immediately claimed that a rebound to warm for a few days was perfectly normal and expected, (even though he never said that beforehand). Now he has Feb 15th thru March 15th as his new target period for epic winter. That is now crumbling apart and frankly at this point I find it humorous... So why do you read him Buckeye? Because he's a hypster which leads to one of two outcomes. Either he's right and we snow....or he's wrong and turns into the clown building a tower out of jello. Either way it's entertainment