buckeye

the difference between the euro and gfs is crazy. Unfortunately the euro team also has the uk on it's side. The gem kinda splits the diff. So, does the gfs ever win a battle like this inside 60 hours or is it ALWAYS the euro?

gfs doubling down, may even be slightly north. crazy stuff at 60 hours out

I'm hugging the 48hr. 18z HRRR like a lifeboat on the titanic.

killjoy

this fv3 model any good? God I miss the DGEX #grasping

SMH, really is unbelievable. We fail incredibly well here.

euro holds to it's southern solution....

that would be the heartbreak zone

NAM didn't suck but it did slightly go south. Basically 2 parts to this storm. First is the WAA followed by the passing of the ULL. Best snow usually comes from the waa, at least around here, but sometimes those ULL can surprise too. You want to be just to the north of that low when it passes, right now NAM has it scooting from about Lexington to Charleson WV, (something to watch for). Either way it's starting to look like the jackpot is pretty narrow, only a few counties wide so details are everything....gonna be some heartbreak with this one. Wish it was more widespread share the wealth kind of storm.

it seems like the only time there is a last minute significant shift north is when it screws us and we go from snow to slop... But who knows. My memory is probably failing me, but the last most infamous sudden shift north inside of 48hrs was the presidents day weekend storm in 2003. I suppose the models have improved in the last 22 years though lol.

I'm thinking most likely scenario is minimal warning event for Franklin county south.... Probably advisory for Delaware and a couple of tiers north. When ALL the models are showing you dead-center in the heaviest snow 4 days out...and we get shut out or DAB, you have to wonder what the hell are we even doing here. early call for mby, 3-5"

well there's always that break the glass weenie rule: energy isn't on shore yet....let's see if better sampling changes things

hard to ignore euro’s south trend which continues at 6z.

More concerned with a south trend …Euro looking scary, it is really heading that way and some of the other models are starting to trend that way too. Really surprised because these kind of systems almost always trend stronger further north. 12z runs will be telling whether it’s a flip or a flop.

ILN put up a WWA for tonight.... 1-2" I think that might be our first of the season?

1.5" tonight? Would be cool to cover the grass and then get our snow sunday. It's really a stretch to say but technically that would be snow on snow and that is definitely something we haven't had in years....outside of multiple dustings to an inch kind of stuff.

definitely been awhile. Even better question might be when was the last time we had maps like this inside 72-84 hours that actually panned out?

Hope I'm not jinxing it but I figured i'd unlock the door here, turn the lights on, and open the ohio discussion on this one. Possibly our first major snowstorm in.....?????? This is all the 12z runs from today. The consistency is crazy but I'm still trying to figure out how we get screwed out of this one, (If it's possible we'll find a way).

I believe 2024 was central Ohio's worst tornado/severe season in our history. As far as mby, we dodged every bullet. Late summer, early fall drought was also notable.

OTOH the high is pretty far nw , (at least for our neck of the woods), which is why I thought the influence of it wouldn't be that suppressive. I think it's the confluence to the northeast that is really f'ing things up. Sucks to see this turn to a sheared mess again, if that does happen. Only bright spot is my passion for this stuff is wavering quite a bit, probably because I'm older and probably because we've been slapped around so much the last several winters you eventually start to get numb to it all. I still prefer a torch but if it's gonna get annoyingly cold it would be nice to have a snow cover.

6z euro is weaker and south.... yuck

this storm thread went sideways. back to the storm, 18z more north with precip shield

when i think of similar storms that trended north, (to my peril), I think of Feb. 12-13 '07. That storm happened on a Tuesday. Models were onto it a week before showing a several day runs in a row of a swath of 2-3' of snow across KY into DC. Over the weekend the models started shifting north and by Sunday we were in the bullseye of the heavy swath . That stayed consistent right up to the day of, Tuesday morning, where we had a winterstorm warning and were forecasted to get 12". The comma head snow came up from the south looking like a solid wall of dark blue on the radar. It started snowing around 8am and by 11am the pingers started and quickly everything turned to sleet. We might have picked up an 1-2" before that happened, and we ended up with crap. Meanwhile the storm became a full fledge blizzard for people further north and west, (including Lafayette home of you know who). That was a brutal last minute north shift. The set up is sort of similar with this one except the center of the PV was pretty much due north of the lakes in Canada vs further northeast where it is situated this time.

looking at the 84 rgem, I bet canadian comes further north and stronger. Thinking we might see that trend start today. Confluence in the northeast moving futher east and stronger storm out west. Heads up northern OH/southern MI