buckeye

I was trying to recall the last time we were forecasted to get heavy snow and it turned into a sleetfest and I keep going back to Feb 2007, but I'm sure we've had it happen since then. I remember that one because we were forecasted to get a foot the morning of the storm... It was a huge screw job.

No changing in the middle .....got to ride the calls come pellets or pingers! I'm sticking to mine. If the precip comes in as heavy snow, I think it'll stay mainly snow. If it let's up in intensity then it could changeover.

I think my progression was TWC...Wright Weather....eastern....AmWx. Back in the day we didn't have geographic subforums.... The storm threads were like the wild west

Yea that one last year sucked but we did get some redemption towards the end. That was more of a dryslot situation where we ended up with hours of drizzle. This one looks to have pretty heavy rates with the main low coming in.

yup, 25 years plus with some of us.

I'd draw my sleet line from about Cambridge to Chillicothe, but wouldn't rule out some pingers in Columbus

Man you guys got the patient buried and embalmed before the operation Food for thought...the anecdotal kind 1. When aren't we on the line? I mean that's how we roll. 2. More often than not, these nail biters that we follow every last model run on tend to work out. Feb 2014, Dec. 04. Ironically the ones we think we're safe on are the ones that punch us in the gut, Feb 07 comes to mind. 3. This storm has another one right on its ass, which favors more progression. 4. First true arctic press involved all season. 5. Expansive snow cover over the entire state. Relax, this is what makes this hobby so interesting.

I would say the nam lost a bit of cred. When a model is swinging like a pendulum it's probably time to discount it. Pretty much radar time now anyways. Not changing my prediction....but Im fully prepared to go down with the s.s. euro if we hit a sleetberg.

I'm going all in. This just seems like one of those that could over perform. John Glenn airport 10.2" NW subs 11-12".

Looked good to me....

Yup, it's a classic 3C snowstorm set up.....assuming the slp track doesn't start shifting.

rgem looks good. Leaving out the nam current moves, all models show a low going from the Gulf to E. TN with a fresh 1030+ high in the banana position to our NW. I couldn't draw a better scenario for a Columbus winter storm.

12z rgem will be very telling if it shows support with the nam. Rgem likes amping things too.

Yea we'll have to see if this is the nam being the nam or if other models follow. It would be reminiscent of the old days when we expected this to happen. Just lately everything has trended south and weaker, in fact our most recent screw job was a result of models being too far north. Ironically this is the first storm this season where we have a fresh arctic air mass pushing in too.

I decided to go into lurking-only mode back in early spring. Just needed to separate myself from here for awhile. Didn't like who I became being sucked into a thread and a topic that in my opinion has no place here. This is where we come to share our illogical and unique passion for weather. It's the only place we can do it. That's ALL this place should ever be. That's my opinion and the last I will say about it So on a lighter note, I did plan to start posting around Xmas but then we actually got a snowstorm on Xmas eve/day and then more snow, and now we sit with a snow cover and a potential decent storm coming in on top. I told pondo and dilly that since I stopped posting we were having the best winter in years and I was afraid I might jinx it. So let me apologize in advance to my Ohio brethren if this turns into a 1-3" turd now that I'm back. As far as the later week threat, that's always been tenuous, so I ain't taking the blame if that washes us out.

Rant done? Good. My fcking turn. If that's ALL you're going through right now....you are one of the lucky ones. The truth is there are 22 million people laid off for starters and a vast majority already live pay check to pay check. They're white, they're black, they're professionals, they're blue collar, factory workers and small business owners. They have children, mortgages, health issues....who knows...but certainly not you...you have no idea what these people are going through. The fact that you and others here feel the need to interject race and throw the race card at people who you've never met or seen before while you assign motives to their actions is disgusting. It reveals more about you then any fantasy shade you choose to project on them. Just as we have been so easily cowed into quivering inside of our closed homes and shutting down the businesses we have spent our lives building....now we're perfectly fine with nuking the first ammendment. It really is amazing. Some of you people need a swift kick in the a** and a reminder of who you are and the country you are citizens of. You berate a blue collar guy at a protest who just lost his job and livihood because according to you, it's the fault of his stupid life choices. Yet there's no problem collapsing the economy and thereby killing off far more people... all in the name of heroic covid patients, the majority who've spent the last 30 years of their lives stuffing their faces with twinkies and smoking their way into pre-existing medical conditions. Before you gasp with faux shock....all I'm doing is illustrating the other side of the cavalier argument YOU presented. Today they protest as you shame them, tomorrow they put a fcking gun to their temple. We also need to stop this faux narrative that defending the economy is disregarding lives...it's just an attempt to use shame as a weapon against anyone who dares question the state's orders. There are many studies dating back to the 1970's that show anywhere between 1000 and 35000 deaths for every 1% increase in unemployment. That's not taking into consideration an unprecedented collapse like we are now experiencing. Much of the economic damage has already become systemic and continues to metastize. It will last well beyond these ridiculous draconian shut-down measures. People have been conditioned by fear and shamed into compliance. They are still going to be afraid to fly, sit in a crowded restaurant, or go to a crowded mall for quite a long time which will extend the economic misery. The amount of death as a result of the economic collapse will dwarf covid deaths. This is just the beginning. Many small businesses will never re-open, the housing market will most likely collapse, the credit market will follow, and then the banks. Believing the government can print its way out of this is going to show a lot people, very quickly, the 'joys' of socialism. Right now this may seem like nothing more than watching a netflix documentary while having to take a couple of weeks off without pay. That's how a lot of the posters in this thread seem to act. But in the end, it doesn't matter who you are, who you work for, or where you live, the economic collapse is your biggest threat not the virus. Yet many here would rather worship the government and obediently follow policy based on virus models whose verification scores make a 1997 dgex 10 day snowfall forecast look solid. We will obey like good sheeple. Good luck if you're counting on the government and their, "we're all in this together", mantra . As far as those stupid white trash people blocking the roads in Michigan...they're light years ahead in reality and clarity. Is all lost? Maybe, maybe not, but if not it's because we're only midway thru April. How's that for a rant Go ahead and throw the weenies and flame away....I'd expect nothing less and quite frankly don't give a sh*t

https://www.westernjournal.com/cdc-tells-hospitals-list-covid-cause-death-even-just-assuming-contributed/

Weather seems so damn irrelevant right now If this shutdown/isolation culture goes to July, American small business will be decimated. 70% of our economy's engine is small businesses. Two weeks ago I told my guys we were heading into an incredible year looking at all the signals. I was interviewing people and ready to purchase additional vehicles. Fast forward 2 weeks ..... this morning I had the 'lay off' talk with my guys, it was the hardest thing Ive had to do. They're scared to death and I don't blame them. Is the govt going to bail out millions of small businesses and tens of millions of workers without a paycheck? What about the big businesses like the airlines? Apparently the U.S. treasury is populated by rainbow -shtting unicorns running the printing presses. I hope the powers that be know what the hell they're doing because they've put a stack of chips they can't afford on these distancing policies. Has anyone asked what the death rate increases to and what the quality of life degrades to when an economy the size of ours collapses? Degraded health services, suicides, violence etc. I'm guessing a death toll far greater then even the H1N1. Or maybe they can look to Venezuela for reference. I suspect after a few weeks some of these politicians and 'doctors' are going to be forced to re-evaluate how they are leveraging risk.

I don't know what's more surreal, no toilet paper in any stores in Columbus, or that it's actually snowing. Seriously, if you want to get depressed, go to a grocery store. People walking around in a fog, no ground beef, no chicken breasts, no tp, and sections of empty shelves. WTF

thanks I'll check it out

Amen, I've often said I would be less embarrassed being caught surfing porn then caught refreshing 500mb maps. With porn I can at least use the excuse, "everyone does it".

Another magical photo. You're the Detroit chamber of commerce's worst nightmare.

Not so good this year. I believe they had my region as being....let's see if I can recall the scientific term again....hmmmm...oh yea... "Bone chilling cold" That being said, I give them more credit than JB. At least the Farmers Almanac can use the excuse that their methodology, (furriness of squirrels and stripes on a caterpillar), can be flawed at times. JB actually uses meterological science and still ends up with a forecast opposite of reality. I just did my usual end of season subscription cancellation. I really wish I could find a model site as nice and thorough as wxbell's....and as cheap. I hate giving my money to them but their model site is awesome. I sent an email and asked if I could get a subscription discount if I just had access to the model pages and not the meterologists blogs and videos....no response

YES. Nice mild dry October and November then the hammer comes down about the 3rd week in December and we get winter, (with a few warm ups here and there to keep things interesting and the atmosphere primed), until mid Feb. Yup, 6-8 weeks of memorable winter. It's all I'm asking.... Where do I submit my order?

Also they can shelve the Indian Ocean Dipole that was the new hot term back in Fall and was a factor in the bullish winter forecasts for the OV. I agree with you on analogs....they are a joke, I'm not sure why so many mets use them. Chaos factor alone pretty much guarantees that seasonal analog forecasts will fail. This year the AO and the EPO ruled. A relentless positive AO and EPO are the kiss of death...period. EPO probably having more weight than the AO. It seemed everytime the EPO went negative we went cold.