buckeye

not a bad look at all 96hrs out on the ukie.

It's a good point. This time around it could be our savior instead of being a warm tongue and dry slot up our butt.

it's really close to previous run. GGEM still looks solid. 987 ends up over Harrisburg at 96hr. Nice clocking for the eastern half of Ohio

This is not 24, 48, 72 hours out, it's 90 hrs. Take a deep breath and enjoy the chase.

We'll see where we are end of day tomorrow. Might have to release the kracken!

you guys remember in the 'olden' days when being on the northern or western fringe at 84 hrs with a system coming up from the south was a great place to be? I still feel that way. Leaving out my bias and this particular storm, if someone asked me on a any given day would I rather be riding the fringe or the rain/snow line on a setup like this, I'd pick the fringe everytime.

If we get screwed, it's looking like it most likely would be due to a miss east. BUT, this is the type of set up that things can change drastically in short term with all the moving parts that are still far out there. The final solution will be a result of what happens with the northern stream energy and the southern stream, how they interact, speed, strength, timing etc. This is a set up that can lead to a lot of headfakes and headaches in the short term. Still about 4 days out.

This can only go so far west but I would imagine the western extent of possibility would still have precip issues for us here. 12zeuro showed how this comes west. It has started to phase the energy dropping in from the northern plains on the backside of the 500 low. If that is a real 'trend' we definitely won't have to worry about being whiffed.

Keeping my powder dry on this one. You can seriously come up with good sound reasoning as to how we could get whiffed or how we could get dumped on, or how we could end up sweating precip type. For the latter there are a couple of gefs members that bring the low to Cincy. For the argument of a whiff, less phasing, flatter western ridge, more confluence to the northeast could all lead to the bowling ball not gaining latitude and ending up on the Carolina coast. Kind of online with what Jay mentioned, there is also going to be an ugly dry slot somewhere although that and the worry of a quicker transfer could all be grouped with the too far nw concern. I have no idea or feeling about this one. It's still pretty far out there relatively speaking. The thing to watch is the 500 maps, and see what the trend is on everything. So here's my official first guess: 33% chance of a smoking-cirrus whiff 33% chance of slop or change over 33% chance we have our first big dog in years 1% chance the Steelers beat the Chiefs

This was over in the MA forum, I was going to let him know that here in the OV we refer to 'that piece' as 'Josh'

4 days out... we can do this guys! start suck'n in!

ugh, we need a good ole fashioned i-70 special

yep, might as well throw i-95 in there. Lot of potential for those folks with this set up. Meanwhile we continue to watch snow chances like we're watching a tennis match smoking cirrus.

maybe we should be rooting for this to keep diving in further west to give it enough space and time to allow the piece behind it to phase in. Meanwhile the northeast confluence weakens, the SER flexes, the trough goes negative over the gulf states, and a monster emerges. Although what would actually happen is another MECS.

I choose the ggem this round. Also the gefs is much further east then the gfs op. There's my glass half full. Pondo gonna be proud of me

can we split the difference?

Welcome back! It's great to have a met in the forum that does thorough long range discussions for our area. Always look forward to your analysis even when the news sucks.

Good point, maybe they're just on the endangered list like clippers. Actually, I wonder when the last true triple phaser occurred over the conus.

lol

Ganahl is a snow weenie, I even think Gelber is too. But I think these OCMs feel an obligation to publically project the 'negative' side of weather. After all, only weenies like us consider a 2' blizzard the utopia of winter.

For me, there's about 5 weeks left before I start hoping for warmth vs. snow. When it comes to March, go '08 or go home.

Man that's brutal stuff. On the bright side, indices look more favorable with -ao coming up and mjo looking to move out of 7 through possible the cold phases. Regardless, I think any snow events are going to be a result of perfect timing and luck instead of being a result of a wintry pattern setting in for weeks. This might be one of those winters defined by one event, especially if we can luck out with perfect timing and be on the snowy side of a tripple-phaser . We're due.

I wish

I think nam was a head fake. So far from what I've seen this morning, the upper lakes low is a bit stronger so it's flattening heights out in front. The storm is not able to deepen as much and come as far north as we need. Still have the gfs and euro but not holding my breath on this one.

yea it did