buckeye

This was over in the MA forum, I was going to let him know that here in the OV we refer to 'that piece' as 'Josh'

4 days out...

we can do this guys!    start suck'n in!

15 hours ago, wxman_ind said:

Will central Indiana fill in this snow hole? (This is for Met Winter, Indy has had 0.5" since November)

 

ugh, we need a good ole fashioned i-70 special

2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

new york winter

yep, might as well throw i-95 in there.    Lot of potential for those folks with this set up.   Meanwhile we continue to watch snow chances like we're watching a tennis match smoking cirrus.

maybe we should be rooting for this to keep diving in further west to give it enough space and time to allow the piece behind it to phase in.  Meanwhile the northeast confluence weakens, the SER flexes, the trough goes negative over the gulf states, and a monster emerges. 

Although what would actually happen is another MECS. 

20 minutes ago, Gino27 said:

GFS brings a miss to the SW. I think a SW miss is the only one we haven't had yet this year.

I choose the ggem this round.   Also the gefs is much further east then the gfs op.

There's my glass half full.   Pondo gonna be proud of me 

13 hours ago, OHweather said:

...... The GEFS could be colder and maybe give places along and south of the Ohio River a better shot at snow, the Euro may be more of a mid-Mississippi Valley to Great Lakes deal for where it'd be snowiest. Anyways, let's see if this look can move up in time on the ensembles over the next several days. 

 

 

can we split the difference?

12 hours ago, OHweather said:

I'm very happy to be back where I'm from at a job I always wanted...still busy getting settled in and briefly living at home to save a bit of money and take my time finding an apartment, which let's just say is an adjustment after being able to do whatever I wanted whenever I wanted for 5 years living on my own. But that stuff will work itself out, very happy overall to be back. Not to hate on NJ but it wasn't home and NW NJ isn't all that exciting (aside from surprisingly hilly and wooded terrain to do outdoor activities in). 

Welcome back!  It's great to have a met in the forum that does thorough long range discussions for our area.  Always look forward to your analysis even when the news sucks. 

14 hours ago, IWXwx said:

I thought triple-phasers were declared extinct.

Good point, maybe they're just on the endangered list like clippers.

Actually, I wonder when the last true triple phaser occurred over the conus.

lol

29 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

We're under an inch for the year I think, and they're on air complaining about a dusting. It's stupid. They do it to cause anxiety, I swear.

Ganahl is a snow weenie,  I even think Gelber is too.   But I think these OCMs feel an obligation to publically project the 'negative' side of weather.  After all, only weenies like us consider a 2' blizzard the utopia of winter.

For me, there's about 5 weeks left before I start hoping for warmth vs. snow.   When it comes to March, go '08 or go home.  

8 hours ago, Gino27 said:

Unless we find a way to scrape together 1.3" of snow in the next 7 days. Columbus will be on pace for the least amount of snow since 1940, barring only the 2006-2007 season in which we would need 4" by the 21st to surpass. Even the infamous 2011-2012 winter had 4.5" of snow accumulated by January 14th.

Man that's brutal stuff.

On the bright side, indices look more favorable with -ao coming up and mjo looking to move out of 7 through possible the cold phases.   

Regardless, I think any snow events are going to be a result of perfect timing and luck instead of being a result of a wintry pattern setting in for weeks.   

This might be one of those winters defined by one event, especially if we can luck out with perfect timing and be on the snowy side of a  tripple-phaser . 

We're due.

24 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

virginia winter

I wish

I think nam was a head fake.  So far from what I've seen this morning, the upper lakes low is a bit stronger so it's flattening heights out in front.   The storm is not able to deepen as much and come as far north as we need.     Still have the gfs and euro but not holding my breath on this one.

8 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

18z NAM looked pretty crappy.

yea it did

15 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

your point is flawed though, given my point is geography based to. i just didn't post some random mileage map.

and i'm pretty sure cyclone was originally trying to include you all, before eventually going back to edit his post with some truthful sarcasm. it's not our fault ya'll (ohioans) make yourself to be outcasts in this sub-forum.

I guess the only way not to be an outcast is to give right back to y'all.    But I have a feeling the butt-hurt screams would be deafening.

17 minutes ago, Cartier God said:

yes its because people from ohio dont understand jokes

29 posts.   You haven't earned a reply,    (just joking)

6 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

you have no point there, given detroit folks post in the main threads.


.

My point is geography, yours is, "but someone else is doing it...".

But I know there was another reason why us Ohioans don't like participating in the main threads....hmmmm....what was it again?....

On 1/1/2022 at 1:53 AM, cyclone77 said:

EDIT:  Nevermind, forgot Ohio has it's own special segregated thread where this is already being discussed.  Guess no need to talk about it here.

On 1/1/2022 at 2:01 AM, NEILwxbo said:

People from Ohio are so special they get their own thread 

5 hours ago, MidwestChaser said:

Look at it this way; do we really want potential Ohio State fans getting everything messy with Skyline Chili? It’s better to keep them contained.

6 hours ago, mimillman said:

Lord

11 minutes ago, hlcater said:

please dont encourage them, they're better off in quarantine

...oh that's right, the weird hardon and snark that some of you have for Ohio posters.    

I suspect the NAM is going to double down on it's 12z.   Looking at the 18z sref it actually has the greatest precip amount to our nw

4 minutes ago, JayPSU said:

I would say there's still room for an inevitable NW shift...but that never seems to benefit us, only those to our north and west.  

On the bright side, sometimes when models are dealing with two waves close to one another, surprises can happen quickly with the second one.    There's my happy weenie injection for the day 

Slowly losing the euro as this thing sinks south.    Now watch the GFS come back tonight with a block buster storm for us 

8 minutes ago, jaf316 said:

Canadian looking a bit more suppressed this run... 

Yep, big red flag.   Really the only good run so far has been the nam +60 hrs.   Not encouraging.

GEM trended weaker and south, icon is nada, gfs is nada, ukmet was showing hope at 00z but it went back to crap at 12z.    If I were a betting man I'd have to put my chips on the euro starting to cave at 12z.  If not, then we can at least hug the ole EE rule.

Regardless,after that it's a rainstorm followed by a sharp cold front that is transient.   In this wavy pattern it's all about luck and timing.   DC has the hot ticket right now.

Just now, pondo1000 said:

Every party has a pooper….

LOL!!!

Trust me, I'd love to choke down crow on this one.  I'm ready for some snow.   

Just now, Gino27 said:

GFS keeps ticking slightly better on 500 vort, but looks the same if not worse overall.

I hate to say it but the gfs seems to make more sense to me.   That first storm in front of it moving through the upper lakes delivers the cold, but the spacing might not be enough to allow the follow up energy to amp much.... IOW, washed-out turd.     This may not even be a matter of the gfs and euro meeting halfway, probably one is going to score the coupe.   Gfs scored the coupe on the MA storm, so there's that too unfortunately.   

On 1/1/2022 at 1:53 AM, cyclone77 said:

EDIT:  Nevermind, forgot Ohio has it's own special segregated thread where this is already being discussed.  Guess no need to talk about it here.

On 1/1/2022 at 2:01 AM, NEILwxbo said:

People from Ohio are so special they get their own thread 

Yea, it's a head scratcher, can't understand why.