BullCityWx

1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

I have decided to take my first steps to become a weenie, instead of just a lurker.  I checked out this Tropical Tidbits sight that you guys mention so much.  Man the information there is almost overwhelming.  Who maintains that site?

Edit: Never mind, I read the About page.  Still very impressive and useful for non-tropical weather.

Pivotal weather is also good. That is @brettjrob‘s child if I remember correctly 

2 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Also, we're way to far out to predict this, but this is the type setup that could produce an inverted trough behind the mountains and lead to a surprise precip maxima somewhere.

That was one of my thoughts, could definitely enhance that area west of 321 and north of 85. 

1 minute ago, griteater said:

Euro Kuchera Clown Map

I wonder why yours is different from mine

Max this run is dead center in Guilford County, probably close to 9 or 10. 

3" line all the way back to Greenville this run with 5" back to a line from Hickory to Gastonia. 

I'm thinking this run will be close to half an inch or maybe six tenths QPF for north meck/eastern lincoln/southern iredell.

By hour 126 about half a foot of snow in MBY. 

Decent snow Charlotte and NE at 126, it seems. 

The lowest ratio I saw for CLT on bufkit was 13:1

1 minute ago, FallsLake said:

Just for the fun of the discussion, RDU would go from low 30s to the upper teens during the event. I would suspect there would be some high ratios. **If this happened as depicted.  

$$$

3 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said:

Does this mean that we might have to worry about a warm nose at some point or is this a different type of setup?

The only thing I can pick at with this setup is it's a little warm at the SFC when it begins but evaporational cooling should do its thing.

1 minute ago, griteater said:

What was that January ultimatum again? 

I'll come back wearing a sombrero and mustache.

That's a pretty efficient snow sounding. 

Honestly, the sounding looked really good for GSO at 108. Saturation goes all the way up to the 200MB level of the atmosphere. 

Yes, sorry I wasnt clear. I am referring to the Euro.

Kuchera maps look even better. Up to a foot in eastern guilford with 7" down to Salisbury. 

For those of y'all in Charlotte or the triad, the euro just gave our snow to I-95. again.

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

I’m not sure, the sample size is so small.  It’s not been good in the northeast though at all.  96-97 (neutral after one year of La Niña), 01-02 and 12-13 are the only real good cases and all were pretty lousy.   Some of the more reliable longer term forecast guys out there have theorized solar activity and MJO have a huge influence in those winters because you don’t have an ENSO influence to “buckle the jet.”  01-02 had awful solar an MJO for the US.  I think the winter was mostly spent in phases 4-5.  

What is funny is those were all pretty horrible except for one decent event during each season. Otherwise, they were warm years. 

7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Typically if you’re coming off a multi year La Niña a weak El Niño on the order of 0.2–0.7 won’t do a whole lot with the southern stream.  You usually need to kick into a decent 1.0-1.5.  And history shows that is USUALLY what happens.  57-58, 72-73, 76-77, 86-87, 02-03, 09-10 all came off multi year La Niñas and the two which could be modeled (02-03 09-10) showed up well in advance on the climate models.  My hunch is if we don’t start seeing a pronounced move by April in the ENSO models to a 1-1.5 by next winter then you can probably assume we go closer to neutral as when you’re in a negative PDO phase or on your way into one which may be more the case now, the ENSO models usually verify too high on predicted El Niño’s beyond 6 months 

How does La Nada work out for us after a multi year nina?

1 minute ago, No snow for you said:

Our winter has come to rely on an ULL. Next thing I know we are going to start talking about a SSW event. 

heh. believe it or not, that was on the twitter machine yesterday. 

11 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

Only model site I use is TT. Did the Euro show some ULL action for us? What's all this snow talk about

Only a couple hundreths at GSP, more further east with almost a tenth at UZA.

That cut off scenario would have some really good ratios, if it came to pass. 

7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Well, it's based on Dr. Nah, so wha'd'ja expect?

The pattern pretty much stinks.  Maybe we get a surprise...not impossible, I suppose, but it's not a pattern one would intentionally draw if one were to draw up a snowstorm pattern.

I think we’re definitely going to get cold again but outside of that, it’s a pattern of nope.

When the EPS is like "nah" for the next two weeks for almost everybody: