BullCityWx

2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

really gets cranking on the back half, plenty of time to go still.

I was thinking we'd see a colder solution with the low being over LA this run. We'll see, I guess. 

There was 8 EPS members that showed a warning criteria event at 0z. 20 or so showed at least a trace of snow.

26 minutes ago, CarySnowLover said:

I would like to rant about RDU's apparent inability to produce a good snowfall before Christmas. Look at the chart below. Four winter storms that produced over a foot of snow in some part of NC left RDU with a mere trace. 

It has happened two or three times since the 1870s. You can’t be mad at climo.

1 minute ago, griteater said:

^ I’m with mister snow niner.  Full blocking all the time is the way to go at our latitude 

Yes sir. There’s a reason snowstorms like 1973 and 1989 only happen so often. I’ll take my chances on the blocking being too much and those happening because my odds are good.

I cant believe Ryan Maue would be so stupid as to post one of 51 euro ensemble members and at that, hour 300. 

2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

yep you just have to stay grounded in reality and climo and ignore the models even when they all show a big dog.

Yep. I dont even feel like this is being negative, it's being realistic. 

1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

The Triad and other parts of the Piedmont I just had a post Thanksgiving snowstorm last year 

2" is not a significant event. There has only been two warning criteria events at PTI before 12/10 since, well, a very long time. 

I could be wrong but I just think it's too early. If we were talking about christmas, I'd feel much better. There hasnt been a significant early December snowstorm in Charlotte, for instance, since 1971. Before that, you have to go all the way back to the 1880s and 1890s. 

We need to keep our expectations in check. 

Yeah, we had coves freeze over on Lake Norman last year.

That was an interesting NAM run at 0z.

On 10/30/2018 at 8:24 AM, Orangeburgwx said:

I like this forecast, shades of 09'-10:

http://firsthandweather.com/3993/2018-2019-winter-outlook/

He/she doesnt seem to understand carolina climatology.

Look over rowan county.

Make that now NW34G56 at BUY

Burlington last hour NW31G51

Just now, WxKnurd said:

Thanks.  I knew it had to be close to 50 mph with some of those gusts.

It was enough to trigger a special obs on the METAR so it had to be impressive. 

22 minutes ago, WxKnurd said:

Very strong gust now, will be interesting to see with the airport records.

8 minutes ago, Snovary said:

Just a question how effective are the 850 winds at filtering down to the surface in a extra tropical scenario vs a normal tropical cyclone? Looking at the 10m winds it doesn't seem like many are getting to the surface. But obviously wouldn't take much. 

925 is more of what you're looking for. 

Michael is only four MB weaker than Andrew when he came on shore.

1 minute ago, Lookout said:

thought this tweet by ryan was noteworthy

 

Yeah, it seems like most of if not all of south georgia is a pecan farm. this cant be good for that.

headed to the state fair a week from saturday. hopeful for seasonal temps.

33 minutes ago, Isopycnic said:

Looks like another backdrop front next weekend (10/5) but no relief from humidity on the horizon according to the 06z gfs. 

Setting up to potentially be an all time warm month, even if the back half of October is just normal.

GFS just cancelled fall through at least October 10th

No sign of fall through 10/5 on 12z GFS. Hottest September on record for KCLT is a near lock.

That is just west enough that is probably the worst case scenario for Raleigh east, maybe even Durham.