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BullCityWx

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Everything posted by BullCityWx

  1. BullCityWx
    Did you check the soundings? I’ll hang up and wait for your answer.
  2. BullCityWx
    Does anyone check soundings anymore?
  3. BullCityWx
    Just going on feel and experience from past storms: I expect the most snow to fall in the front end thump. If we see the generational totals advertised by several models, it's because it's going to snow like we've never seen before on Sunday before Midnight. If the front end thump doesnt work out, those totals dont work out. I fully expect this to start quicker than whatever the timeline ends up being, just from past events. There will be freezing rain and sleet mixed in almost everywhere, that I have no doubt about. I expect the most freezing rain from Athens to Columbia to Rocky Mount. I wouldnt be surprised to see this freezing rain line make it as far southeast as Florence to Bladen County up to Clinton and further NE. Most sleet will probably follow a line from Anderson to Rock Hill to Raleigh. Someone in that area could full well see half a foot of sleet. Surface temps are going to be at least 3-4 degrees colder than modeled now. N&W of that sleet line, especially the areas closest to the sleet line, will probably see the heaviest snow. Just my gut feelings based on what the models have shown and past experience.
  4. BullCityWx
    I think the most critical thing for places like Charlotte, Raleigh, Greenville will be how much do you get out of the front end thump? That's where you're going to see the best snow growth. Once we get to 0z Monday, it seems like the soundings either dry out in that region or slightly go above freezing. I think what people dont remember about 1/1988, most of the snow fell in that event at the very beginning. The end was sleet and freezing rain. I could see a situation like that.
  5. BullCityWx
    Ye olde town trash dump is probably a good divding line.
  6. BullCityWx
    and the dividing line is either going to be the south or north end of it. Just not clear on which side.
  7. BullCityWx
    I think 485 is going to be the dividing line, again. Maybe up to 73.
  8. BullCityWx
    Agreed. I'm warning my Cola friends that this could be a lights go out ice event.
  9. BullCityWx
    Looks like steady as she goes on the off hour euro.
  10. BullCityWx
    KUCHERA Ratio maps on PivotalWeather showing 10:1 ratios on the NAM at 84.
  11. BullCityWx
    Also slightly concerned about that.
  12. BullCityWx
    Yep, up to 11” at chapel hill this run.
  13. BullCityWx
    EPS mean for my location looks like it’s holding steady or even going up
  14. BullCityWx
    FV3 Just started coming in. It should be done by time Army/Navy kicks off this weekend
  15. BullCityWx
    I swear to god some of us have to be on acid or mushrooms to see the things we are seeing
  16. BullCityWx
    Also freezing rain underway at hour 84 in Columbia Owens
  17. BullCityWx
    The NAM pushed freezing rain almost all the way back to Fort Payne, Alabama.
  18. BullCityWx
    Boy the NAM just crushes NE GA. Marietta and Athens each see about an inch QPF if freezing rain.
  19. BullCityWx
  20. BullCityWx
    Good lord, the worst GEFS member for chapel hill was 8”. 8(!) out of 20 were a foot and a half or more.
  21. BullCityWx
    Good lord. 18z GEFS mean looks to be CLOSE to 20” from Charlotte to about Burlington
  22. BullCityWx
    GEFS is gonna have another stupid high mean
  23. BullCityWx
    Should we call 911 and have someone do a welfare check on the GFS?
  24. BullCityWx
    I think we’ve potentially found your foot.
  25. BullCityWx
    GSP going with 6-8 for Charlotte, 8-12 for Gastonia, possibly over a foot if you’re n&W of the city
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