BullCityWx
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Everything posted by BullCityWx
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Could definitely see this being a situation in CLT where Davidson/Mooresville see double digits, Huntersville gets 5”, an inch or two at carowinds and freezing rain once you get to Dave Lyle Blvd in RH.
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Soundings are all around better this run, whether its temps or the snow growth zone.
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Yes, I'd throw out the NAM if the roles were reversed because long range NAM.
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They said as much in their disco, as I recall. Might want to fact check me.
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The percentage chance of seeing a foot of snow increased fairly significantly on 12z EPS.
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Mean snowfall for CLT on the SREF this run is basically unchanged, around 4.5"
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It depends where in CLT. Ballantyne? No. Shuffletown or Mountain island? better shot.
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I think it depends on how much snow or freezing rain. If it's either of those, you could see limbs breaking. Not so much with sleet.
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Losing half an inch of QPF will do that
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UKMET is really cold at the surface.
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FV3 seems to really want to make US 74 the cut off, as per usual
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I think we’re good here. A foot or more of snow falls over a large area before the assumed changeover happens.
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Did anyone else notice the RGEM has QPF in NC as soon as 12z Saturday?
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or panicking when one model shows a negative solution. Some people irrationally use storm busts too.
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GFS honestly isnt bad either. I'm thinking this NAM run will end up being fluky.
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I will take that GFS run, gladly so.
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9Z SREF Mean is double what falls at RUQ on the 12z NAM.
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SREF has a mean snowfall of just about 5" in Charlotte by 7PM Sunday.
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The NAM doesnt even agree with it's own ensemble members yall.
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That is exactly my hypothesis. If you look at the 3K, at Hour 60, you see the snow line advancing because there's precip. On the regular NAM, you dont have anything that triggers dynamic cooling until we knew we'd start mixing anyway.
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Extracted data is showing thunder sleet
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I think you can argue that it’s doing what it’s been showing for a while now and cooling from the top down. It’s snowing just on the other side of the Catawba on that frame.
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3K NAM has the snow line advancing southward at 60.
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The usual suspects, every time.
