BullCityWx
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Everything posted by BullCityWx
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With us just beginning winter, I wonder how many piedmont locations have had multiple snows of 6"+ in a winter.
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I could see that just being where the best lift and precip is located, kinda like the November snow in Lexington County in 2015.
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Only time I was ever in Columbia for snow you would've thought General Sherman was coming back through. Someone should warn them.
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HRRR is further south than the Euro
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Euro looks like another 3-4" tomorrow for Chapel Hill and Durham like @WidreMann mentioned. if it can manage to be pure snow, maybe 2-3" down around Charlotte and points S/E of the city.
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And the HRRR nailed the snow line damn near 36 hours out. Outstanding.
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Has a convective look on the HRRR
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ICON looks like at least another 2-3” on Monday
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18z GFS has me all snow until tomorrow at 18z. We’ll see.
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ICON had the same thing at 12z with second round
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Tomorrow is gonna be about rates, too. Heavier the snow earlier on the better chance it holds on just a little longer.
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Looking at the soundings for MBY(pretty much just south of 85 on the orange/Durham line), it holds the snow sounding longer than last run on the NAM.
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Man, I am so jacked for you. Good luck!
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That’s some fine science you’re doing right there
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The GFS is not only isothermal IMBY but safely so. I really am skeptical to trust it’s thermals but it’s had support from the HRRR/RAP/Euro/ICON so who knows
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SREF Mean up to half a foot for RDU and 10” for Roxboro. 8” looks like a good call for Durham.
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@Poimen, I’ve been watching the ICON closely since it did so well last year. It’s slowly gone colder the last three runs and this run is the best yet.
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Have to like this run if you’re in Chapel Hill or Durham
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Modeling does take moistening the atmosphere into effect
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18z ICON extracted data keeps MBY as snow until about 7PM on Sunday. It’s close, real close, to the transition line. You gotta smell the rain I’m telling myself.
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For those of y’all who are curious about gulf convection, you don’t want a horizontal (—)line across the gulf. If the storms are lined up like this (/) it can actually add to moisture.
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GFS looks like all snow IMBY through 48.
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Climo
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Yeah, I’m thankful to just at 85 tonight
