BullCityWx
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Everything posted by BullCityWx
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Things I’d like to see the rest of the winter, ranked. All realistic: 1. Another 6” snowstorm 2. Break the snow drought in Columbia 3. High Temp of 25 or less 4. Low temperature of 10 or less 5. Below zero wind chills
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25 degrees for the high IMBY next Monday if you believe the Euro.
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Some backside snow this run for the Triangle and Triad this run.
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Looking at the teleconnections, there is a brief spike in +NAO and +AO around 1/23 but they quickly go back negative. The PNA is about neutral. I can definitely deal with that.
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Yeah, that's why i was so excited about it. I've seen that scenario work but it seems like it's been lost.
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The front passed through and a secondary wave developed in georgia, yes.
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Next week was a wave developing on an arctic front. It was nothing near cold chasing moisture.
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January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion
BullCityWx replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
It has not been doing well outside of day 6. From what I understand, it's done pretty okay within 6 days. -
Yeah, it's going to happen, we just dont know when. I'm pretty confident in this.
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This is going to be a good pattern for clipper snow in the south.
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The pattern as depicted on the FV3 just keeps reloading, too.
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But the 498 thickness visiting NC is really rare. You have to admit that.
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My guess is the GFS is a POS. I dunno.
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I’ve seen a couple runs lately with the 498 line dipping into the state.
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ICON had something cooking at the end of its run.
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Sleeting pretty good in south Durham.
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Actually, looking at it, 925 temps are at around -5 to -7 in the triangle so that’s sleet and not freezing rain before the snow. If I had to guess, the snow/sleet line is around hillsborough to just north of Durham.
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And it’s absolutely insane to consider an event like that. You usually don’t see storms that go from freezing rain to snow here.
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Also 2” total QPF. Snow totals around 3” in Durham County but much heavier just north and west.
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Starts off with warning ice accretion followed by heavy snow with temps around 20 followed by lows near zero.
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12z Euro is an absolute massive winter storm.
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FV3 not only agrees with the other GFS but looks better.
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I think you’re referencing Jan 2005
