There’s been plenty of snow the last three winters. I’ve seen a 6” snow every winter since 2015-2016 with two storms that have totaled a foot since 2013-2014.
It’s not far off if you believe the better modeling. It’s well within error range at this point to end up with something. Probably less than a 30% chance but that’s the best odds all winter.
@Buddy1987 if I remember correctly, they built the German model using either code or something from the euro model, which explains how it usually follows its lead.
The GFS is closer than you’d think to a snowier solution along 40. HKY/INT/GSO is just about a degree away from a potentially wet snow. That is well within error range.
I think, with the cold thats being modeled, january 2005 isnt a terrible analog. There were massive positive departures early in the month that went into two weeks in the icebox