BullCityWx

Yeah, 700 and 850 levels still maxed out at 100% at 84.

18z NAM showing 30MPH gusts around Durham on that last frame.

Well, at least we got nammed once this yr.

NAM is about 75 miles north this run at hour 69(75 at 12z).

Euro ENS is a bit better this run.

I need a 100 mile shift northwest before Thursday Morning. I’m thrilled

As we've covered already today, the temps arent an issue where precip falls. The GFS doesnt have precip so evaporational cooling does not occur. This isnt a column where we're at 8c at the 925 level.

Columbia was in a panic that day

ICON is gonna be a decent hit for the triangle and points north and east.

I remember that slider!

Globals have been showing that. Wherever it shows up, it cools off

Almost .4 at FLO through 84 and it's still going.

Amen to that. Right now, I need a 100 mile shift northwest. We all know how this is most likely going to go.

The NAM at 84 is exactly where I want it right now.

We also have to remember this thing isnt even on shore yet.

I think I'd be optimistic as well. I think if we have an area that does really well, it'll be somewhere between Greenville and Raleigh.

RWI went from 0.01 to 0.85(rough estimate) for the event from 0z to 6z on ICON.

The ICON jumped west in a huge way at 6z.

Date: 102 hour AVN valid 0Z FRI 21 FEB 20 Station: 36.02,-79.02 Latitude: 36.02 Longitude: -79.02 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SFC 1014 137 4.8 -0.4 69 5.1 2.6 93 4 276.8 277.4 275.0 286.9 3.66 1 1000 249 4.4 -1.7 64 6.1 1.9 93 9 277.6 278.1 275.0 286.9 3.37 2 950 664 0.7 -3.5 73 4.2 -0.9 82 10 277.9 278.4 274.9 286.6 3.10 3 900 1096 -2.1 -6.2 74 4.1 -3.6 17 10 279.3 279.8 275.0 286.8 2.67 4 850 1548 -4.6 -9.3 69 4.7 -6.1 344 18 281.4 281.7 275.5 287.7 2.22 5 800 2022 -8.5 -11.0 82 2.5 -9.2 331 24 282.1 282.5 275.6 288.1 2.06 6 750 2521 -9.2 -11.2 86 1.9 -9.8 311 30 286.6 286.9 278.1 292.9 2.17 7 700 3056 -8.2 -9.8 88 1.6 -8.7 282 36 293.4 293.9 281.8 301.2 2.60 8 650 3631 -9.7 -10.7 93 1.0 -10.1 266 42 298.0 298.4 283.7 305.9 2.60 9 600 4246 -12.3 -12.8 97 0.4 -12.5 259 48 301.8 302.3 285.1 309.3 2.39 10 550 4906 -16.0 -16.0 100 0.0 -16.0 255 54 305.1 305.5 285.8 311.5 1.99 11 500 5618 -20.6 -21.3 94 0.7 -20.8 254 62 307.9 308.1 286.2 312.4 1.39 12 450 6387 -25.7 -29.4 71 3.7 -26.3 260 74 310.9 311.1 286.5 313.5 0.75 13 400 7235 -28.8 -44.5 21 15.7 -30.3 260 98 317.5 317.6 288.2 318.2 0.18 14 350 8176 -36.2 -48.0 29 11.8 -37.0 260 104 319.9 320.0 288.9 320.5 0.14 15 300 9228 -43.1 -55.9 23 12.8 -43.6 264 116 324.6 324.6 290.2 324.8 0.07 16 250 10443 -47.2 -62.8 15 15.6 -47.7 267 138 335.9 335.9 293.3 336.0 0.03 17 200 11902 -52.8 -68.7 13 16.0 -53.1 271 153 349.2 349.2 296.5 349.3 0.02 18 150 13729 -59.0 -77.7 7 18.7 -59.2 274 137 368.5 368.5 300.3 368.5 0.01 19 100 16248 -61.7 -83.3 4 21.6 -62.0 275 85 408.5 408.5 306.3 408.5 0.00 It's close enough if we can just get precip.

Knocking on Wake Counties door.

ICON looking canadian-ish now

Canadian ensemble mean is further north with 2" just about over Roanoke Rapids.

Canadian has a max of 14.7 at New Bern.