BullCityWx

How on earth do we get sleet at RDU with this sounding?

IPJ has a +2C warm nose right around there

This is valid for basically myself and sean

A lot of sleet

This is going to be another good run of the 12k NAM as far as I can tell. The 3K hasn’t got there just yet.

There’s a ton of evaporational cooling that occurs so you don’t need that. It’s the same thing that happened in the upstate two weeks ago.

If the 3K NAM is correct, you won’t be wasting any initial precip across most of NC. If there’s a warm layer, it’s above 700MB.

For what it’s worth, this is the 3k at hour 60:

6z clown map

I’d really expect more QPF response with this look

GFS has the frontogenesis in practically the same location as the NAM but with much less precip. My guess is the NAM can better see where moisture can be squeezed out of the atmosphere.

ICON has about half an inch of QPF falling as snow here.

Looked at the column for my backyard(far western Durham county) and it looks safely isothermal for the entire event. There’s not even a question.

Yep, I think you’re right too.

Not quite the NAM event but still a good run

I don’t care where the high is if I’ve got an isothermal column and frontogenesis like this

ICON is about to go boom, as best I can tell.

Newman is in serious condition but he should survive, according to his team.

SREF mean is about the same here. Interestingly, the SREF and GFS agree on where the focus of accumulations occur, from about Lumberton to New Bern to ILM.

I think our SREF plumes might be going up

That is what kills GSP and CLT on bufkit, they get SNRAPLed to death.

18z Bufkit is in: 11.5" GSO 8" RDU(still snowing at 20:1 by 84) 7" DAN 5" FAY 1.4" HKY 1" CLT 0" GSP

PRESS HGT(MSL) TEMP DEW PT WND DIR WND SPD HPA M C C DEG M/S E = Estimated Surface Height 1012. 149. -1.2 -1.9 20.6 5.1 1000. 242. -2.1 -2.7 22.8 8.2 975. 442. -3.6 -4.2 27.9 12.9 950. 647. -4.3 -5.1 35.8 16.3 925. 857. -4.0 -4.9 42.5 16.3 900. 1073. -4.9 -5.9 40.8 16.0 875. 1294. -5.7 -6.7 41.3 14.8 850. 1521. -6.3 -7.4 39.3 12.9 825. 1754. -7.0 -8.2 38.3 10.3 800. 1994. -7.6 -8.8 33.6 7.9 775. 2241. -7.0 -8.0 352.1 3.7 750. 2498. -5.0 -5.8 232.3 7.0 725. 2765. -4.5 -5.1 201.6 12.8 700. 3041. -5.2 -5.8 219.2 13.8 650. 3623. -5.8 -6.3 196.9 29.3 600. 4247. -9.2 -10.1 226.1 26.8 550. 4914. -13.6 -15.0 244.8 25.3 500. 5632. -18.0 -19.9 257.0 28.0 450. 6412. -23.1 -25.6 259.6 32.5 400. 7264. -29.3 -46.7 265.8 38.4 350. 8203. -36.3 -57.4 264.5 45.3 300. 9256. -42.3 -66.3 268.0 51.1 250. 10475. -46.8 -67.7 271.2 67.1 200. 11936. -52.5 -71.8 276.1 77.0 150. 13758. -60.0 -79.7 281.4 73.9 100. 16263. -63.0 -86.1 280.2 41.5 50. 20547. -62.0 -87.7 283.3 15.2 Hour 75

PRESS HGT(MSL) TEMP DEW PT WND DIR WND SPD HPA M C C DEG M/S E = Estimated Surface Height 1011. 149. -0.7 -1.4 34.5 4.1 1000. 234. -1.7 -2.2 37.7 6.3 975. 435. -3.4 -4.0 43.4 9.9 950. 640. -4.8 -5.6 46.1 11.6 925. 849. -4.4 -5.2 56.2 12.8 900. 1065. -4.4 -5.2 54.3 12.0 875. 1287. -5.2 -6.1 50.8 11.3 850. 1514. -5.8 -6.9 44.6 9.8 825. 1748. -6.5 -7.6 40.3 9.0 800. 1988. -6.6 -7.6 22.3 7.3 775. 2237. -4.8 -5.3 269.8 2.5 750. 2497. -1.9 -2.3 216.3 15.2 725. 2767. -1.6 -2.0 239.2 23.7 700. 3046. -2.4 -2.9 245.1 28.4 650. 3631. -5.7 -6.5 245.8 27.7 600. 4254. -9.7 -11.0 245.8 25.0 550. 4921. -12.9 -14.5 242.2 31.0 500. 5642. -16.9 -18.8 252.3 33.3 450. 6426. -21.4 -23.7 250.4 36.6 400. 7283. -27.5 -30.2 254.3 38.9 350. 8231. -34.6 -37.7 258.6 44.8 300. 9285. -43.5 -48.9 256.4 48.6 250. 10493. -49.8 -66.6 270.3 61.0 200. 11936. -54.1 -68.5 278.4 77.8 150. 13749. -60.4 -79.0 284.9 74.7 100. 16264. -63.2 -86.3 268.6 40.7 50. 20540. -60.6 -86.7 280.9 15.1 Wow, that sounding for hour 72 aint even close. Solidly cold.