BullCityWx
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Everything posted by BullCityWx
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The NAM was *this* close to a big storm this run.
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There’s been plenty of snow the last three winters. I’ve seen a 6” snow every winter since 2015-2016 with two storms that have totaled a foot since 2013-2014.
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Pivotal added what is, IMO, the second best model(UKMET).
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Almost a 1.5" mean for CLT on SREF
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It’s not far off if you believe the better modeling. It’s well within error range at this point to end up with something. Probably less than a 30% chance but that’s the best odds all winter.
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This is valid for close to back home(Cherryville) on the ICON:
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@Buddy1987 if I remember correctly, they built the German model using either code or something from the euro model, which explains how it usually follows its lead.
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The GFS is closer than you’d think to a snowier solution along 40. HKY/INT/GSO is just about a degree away from a potentially wet snow. That is well within error range.
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ICON is gonna be another nice run.
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Not bad. I believe this is what @ILMRoss mentioned
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German model looks interesting tonight. Image is for MBY. It sometimes will foreshadow a good euro run.
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Do you have any evidence to counteract what he presented?
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ICON has snow showers for Brunswick, New Hanover, Horry and Georgetown counties on Tuesday.
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and you can sit here and make shit up but it's clear that the euro modifies before a secondary cold shot comes in later in the run.
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You are breaking my brain today.
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Below normal to significantly below normal for as far as the eye can see:
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32" of snow in Manteo, 20" of snow in Kill Devil hills, nothing here.
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I think, with the cold thats being modeled, january 2005 isnt a terrible analog. There were massive positive departures early in the month that went into two weeks in the icebox
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I think it's fighting convective feedback which is limiting what we're seeing
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Mike Maze on WRAL mentioned Saturday morning.
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And that 18z run might be the coldest yet. Almost 9 days of temps not getting out of the 30s.
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Why on earth do we care about these snowfall totals at nearly 300 hours out? The EPS is still plenty cold.
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Control run has a pretty significant event. Probably ice for SC, sleet between 85 and 40, mostly snow 40 and north.
