BullCityWx

I could see someone from about Wadesboro to Laurinburg getting a few inches of sleet.

I ran some quick soundings and didnt find a sleet layer until Sanford. Even then, we're only looking at two layers above freezing and just at 32.3 or so.

Date: 33 hour NAM valid 21Z THU 20 FEB 20 Station: 36.05,-78.96 Latitude: 36.05 Longitude: -78.96 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SFC 1000 215 -0.7 33 13 272.5 1 950 622 -4.1 -4.8 95 0.7 -4.3 41 27 273.1 273.5 271.6 280.8 2.82 2 900 1048 -4.3 -5.2 94 0.8 -4.7 32 30 277.0 277.5 274.0 285.0 2.88 3 850 1497 -5.9 -6.9 92 1.0 -6.2 17 26 280.0 280.4 275.4 287.5 2.67 4 800 1973 -3.9 -4.3 97 0.4 -4.0 134 14 287.0 287.6 280.0 297.0 3.47 5 750 2488 -0.8 -1.1 98 0.3 -0.9 185 43 295.7 296.6 285.2 309.7 4.72 6 700 3037 -2.9 -3.4 96 0.5 -3.1 219 35 299.3 300.1 286.1 312.1 4.25 7 650 3621 -6.1 -7.0 94 0.8 -6.5 231 37 302.0 302.7 286.3 312.7 3.49 8 600 4244 -9.1 -10.3 91 1.2 -9.6 244 42 305.5 306.1 286.9 314.6 2.90 9 550 4913 -12.4 -13.9 89 1.5 -12.9 244 54 309.4 309.8 287.8 317.0 2.38 10 500 5635 -17.4 -19.3 85 1.9 -17.9 249 58 311.9 312.2 287.9 317.4 1.66 11 450 6415 -22.4 -24.7 81 2.4 -22.9 239 65 315.1 315.3 288.4 319.0 1.14 12 400 7272 -27.1 -29.7 78 2.7 -27.5 234 83 319.8 320.0 289.6 322.7 0.81 13 350 8221 -33.8 -37.0 73 3.1 -34.2 238 97 323.1 323.2 290.2 324.8 0.46 14 300 9286 -41.4 -44.7 70 3.3 -41.6 251 111 327.1 327.1 291.2 328.0 0.24 15 250 10493 -51.6 254 121 329.4 16 200 11920 -55.8 268 152 344.4 17 150 13733 -59.3 276 144 367.9 18 100 16265 -63.0 256 70 406.0 TRP 0 WND 0

Date: 30 hour NAM valid 18Z THU 20 FEB 20 Station: 36.05,-78.96 Latitude: 36.05 Longitude: -78.96 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SFC 1012 135 0.7 -0.1 94 0.9 0.4 36 8 272.9 273.6 272.9 283.0 3.73 1 1000 230 -0.4 -0.8 97 0.4 -0.5 38 12 272.8 273.4 272.6 282.5 3.61 2 950 638 -3.4 -4.0 96 0.6 -3.6 45 21 273.8 274.3 272.3 282.0 3.00 3 900 1065 -3.8 -4.5 95 0.7 -4.1 34 22 277.6 278.1 274.6 286.0 3.04 4 850 1516 -4.2 -5.1 94 0.9 -4.6 12 13 281.7 282.3 276.9 290.4 3.08 5 800 1996 -1.5 -1.9 97 0.5 -1.7 181 20 289.6 290.3 282.0 301.6 4.15 6 750 2512 -1.4 -1.7 97 0.4 -1.6 200 37 295.1 295.9 284.7 308.3 4.49 7 700 3060 -3.6 -4.1 96 0.6 -3.8 220 37 298.5 299.3 285.5 310.6 4.03 8 650 3643 -6.5 -7.3 94 0.8 -6.8 229 41 301.6 302.2 286.0 312.0 3.39 9 600 4264 -10.1 -11.3 90 1.3 -10.5 238 44 304.5 305.0 286.3 312.8 2.68 10 550 4931 -12.8 -14.4 88 1.6 -13.3 250 53 308.9 309.3 287.5 316.1 2.27 11 500 5651 -18.2 -20.3 84 2.1 -18.8 252 50 310.8 311.1 287.3 315.8 1.52 12 450 6430 -22.6 -25.0 81 2.4 -23.1 241 59 314.8 315.0 288.3 318.6 1.11 13 400 7287 -26.9 -29.5 78 2.6 -27.4 239 81 320.0 320.2 289.6 322.9 0.83 14 350 8235 -34.1 -37.2 73 3.1 -34.4 244 90 322.8 322.9 290.1 324.4 0.45 15 300 9300 -41.6 -44.9 71 3.3 -41.8 258 111 326.7 326.8 291.0 327.6 0.23 16 250 10505 -52.0 -55.8 64 3.7 -52.2 264 120 328.7 328.7 291.5 329.0 0.08 17 200 11929 -56.3 -72.5 11 16.2 -56.6 274 142 343.5 343.5 295.2 343.6 0.01 18 150 13754 -56.4 -83.3 2 26.9 -56.7 281 122 372.9 372.9 301.1 372.9 0.00 19 100 16287 -64.9 -82.1 8 17.3 -65.0 258 89 402.4 402.4 305.5 402.4 0.00 TRP 0 WND 0

7.8. It looks like we benefit from better ratios.

Sleet accumulated here last year at 35 or 36 after a couple days in the 70s.

12z NAM bufkit gives RDU 13"

you gotta ride that lightning to get the best totals.

One thing this run of the NAM showed was significant freezing rain(.6 qpf) down around Whiteville and Sampson County.

Yes, that would be correct.

It's like nobody saw what happened in Georgia two weeks ago.

My gut feeling is they were punting until today. Always trust NAM thermals over GFS.

Yesterday afternoon, at 15z, SREF mean for RDU was around 2". Now we're sitting at half a foot at 9z today.

I guess my question to myself, in that situation, is why would I trust the GFS with thermals?

There's a joke somewhere in here about the Ole Miss forecaster spilling alcohol all over his forecast.

The 04ish VA Beach storm?

We were at 1.6, roughly, and now at 3.6 roughly.

Besides almost every model shifting north today? The isothermal column from start to finish?

I think that’s pretty fair but I could definitely see it move 75 miles west. I didn’t say the storms were similar, I meant that forecasting less than an inch in the triangle is a dangerous proposition given our trends and could force people into catchup mode.

Theres a 1/23/2003 level of catch up potential here on the professionals part.

The reason the GFS is warmer is it suspiciously warms up on Thursday Morning. Now I ask you, if clouds and precip are coming in, are you really going to heat up that much?

There was some not great forecasting on triangle television tonight

Like a cheap table, the GFS has totally folded.

https://meteor.geol.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/index.html