BullCityWx

It’s very easy to ignore the GFS considering the model verification scores.

GSP overnight long term discussion: .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 320 am EST Monday: The latest numerical model solutions feature decent agreement on a strong, closed ~545 dm 500 mb low center spinning slowly east across the Deep South by Thursday night. Deep moisture will return from the west through the day on Thursday ahead of this system but with the best upper jet support east of the low crossing the region Thursday night. The associated 850 mb low center track is currently forecast to pass just southeast of the western Carolinas on Friday, and this track is a classical setup for heavy snow potential in and near the southern Appalachians. With the surface wave likely redeveloping and deepening along the southeast coast, a deformation zone well northwest of the surface to 850 mb low centers will likely produce strong frontogenetical forcing over our region at times. Any banding of the precipitation could lay down very heavy snowfall in affected areas, especially if the forcing pivots from west-east to north-south as the low pulls away. For now, will keep precipitation types as rain versus snow, but there could certainty be some mixed ptypes issues with this system, especially on the onset side of the things. An HWO mention for at least the mountains is certainty worthy and any increase in confidence will require a mention out along I-40 as well with below guidance temperatures featured.

As you know, that'll get 'er done.

Yes. I can remember that happening in 2004, 2009 and 2014.

Canadian is a bit north with its surface reflection from 12z

I was thinking the same thing today. Wherever it snows, it could snow hard.

Reminds me of the late 80s storms. very thin transition line .

I’m sorry that is focused on the mid Atlantic but you get totals with that map and not the others. The non mean map is also 10:1 which is very optimistic. I’d guess 7:1. Still if you half it, it’s a decent event.

Welp

It’s time!

We can’t ask for better trends than what we’ve seen the last 24 hours.

I wouldn’t say faster. The ICON, in particular, is gonna be much slower.

The ICON this run at hour 120 was 300 miles SW at the 500mb level.

Half a foot IMBY this run. Lock it in.

Second storm is rain for everybody who isn’t on the summit of Grandfather on the control.

The euro control run has 2” at RDU with 4-5” north of 40/85 in Durham and Orange Counties.

Definitely with that first event yes. I could see southern wake and Johnston get just rain while Hillsborough/Durham/Oxford get a decent event.

I wouldn’t say so. Along and north of 85 should do okay. I’d even guess brier creek and the airport would do alright .

It just doesn’t seem likely that the second event gets drove into Nashville with the blocking in place without popping a secondary coastal. Trash.

Just another reminder the GFS is trash.

Honestly, Canada being warm(ish) right now is the only thing keeping us from an I-10 storm threat as opposed to I-40. I’ll never wish to see warmer air but I’m genuinely concerned about suppression with what we’re seeing.

The euro control was on its way to a very nice solution at 18z.

I mean you can’t argue that but that’s true almost every year.