BullCityWx
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Everything posted by BullCityWx
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The GFS is truly the Ralph Wiggum of weather modeling.
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Looking at the ECENS graphs, it’s interesting to note at Burlington, about 27 of 49 total ensemble members have 3” or more. You want to see that sort of spread instead of bigger members outweighing a bunch saying no snow. Only four ensemble members show nothing at all and eighteen have 3” or under.
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I think that’s pretty solid right now.
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ECENS seemingly crushes Storm #2. I dont know if it's spread in warmer solutions or QPF. if I had to guess, it'd be QPF.
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Ji is gonna be volcanic
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Someone is going to have an epic meltdown if they get outdone by Baton Rouge.
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The good news is the means actually improved(especially from say the airport west). 3" mean for almost all of Orange County plus NW Durham County. 3.5" mean for BUY.
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It's definitely coming. We need to get our shots in now because I could see this rapidly turning into an I-10 winter if we can accumulate some cold.
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Exactly where I want it right now.
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Kinda reminds me of the timeframe 2009 happened around Home.
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I’d rather that heavy snow be around Pageland and Rock Hill right now.
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Back in the early 2000s that was absolutely the case. @WidreMann and I would say the same thing.
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Looks like canadian jackpot is Rocky Mount-Tarboro-Wilson. Generally around 5-6" for most of Guilford/Alamance/Durham/Orange/Person. Far NE Wake actually does the best for immediate triangle areas.
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^ I remember seeing that same thing early on in the process.
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Yeah, I wish it would be right because I would run and take it. I just doubt that track though.
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Gonna bet that track doesnt happen.
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I think south of 40, yes.
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At 500MB, the low at 6z was over Memphis. This run, it's closer to Red Bay, MS. That is roughly a 120 mile shift SE.
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Just a lack of QPF from what I can gather.
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If you figure that lift pivots through GSP and Charlotte say 4-7 hours later, the storm starts in the middle of the night there. That is good timing.
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Look at this lift near Atlanta that is gonna pivot through:
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ICON actually dryslots the triad it looks like this run. Edit: Also looks like the 321 corridor get dryslotted as well. Fayetteville or nearabouts jackpot.
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I left SC out on purpose if you know what I mean. Pulling for yall.
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Plymouth State soundings are down. Not sure how I get through a storm without them.
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6z EPS mean increased here to 3”.
