BullCityWx
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Everything posted by BullCityWx
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Even 2-3" down to Austin. All of the elevated roadways there will love that.
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If I had to venture a guess about the 15z SREF, I think means are going to go up. The most snow on the entire map is in Richmond.
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Was just gonna say that.
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Oh yeah, yall will not only be below zero, you'll probably be five or ten below.
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Extracted data shows a thickness of 496 at RIC on 1/22. Wow.
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The GFS is stupid cold in the long range. 498 thickness line is south of Richmond.
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I wanted to dig in deeper IMBY for the 12z NAM. Looks like we're all snow until hour 63 when some IP mixes in. F5wx.com is giving me a roughly 6:1 ratio with 1.45 QPF. That's still 9" with a 6:1 ratio. Not sure that I buy that solution but it's fun to ponder.
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I aint gonna believe it until the NGM and RUC buys in. The NGM was how I knew the February 2004 storm was legit. It had an 8 in the snow column in MOS and it NEVER had an 8.
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Also thinking about this system: if we’re thinking this system is dynamic and have banding, the NAM is clearly designed to pick that up better than the GFS.
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The GFS still had me getting a half of an inch on Christmas Eve at this range. Y’all remember that?
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You nailed it. When we see lighter precip, we see less frozen. When we see heavier QPF depicted, the column is colder.
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I’ll be honest: I like the timing on the NAM. If it’s right, there’s zero diurnal heating. It’s snowing by 7AM and only picks up in intensity.
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It’s the GFS.
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WRAL believes that accumulations are most likely N&W of 85.
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I think we're smarter to use the ensemble means for now. It smooths out the potential convective and banding elements some of these models are seeing.
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One thing I’ve noted in a few runs is there’s almost like a Miller B transfer with the QPF. Feel like we’re going to see people very happy where you actually see precip.
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GFS para finds a way to miss Charlotte so it’s obviously legit.
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Actually that GFS run has warning criteria snows for the entire 85 corridor from Gastonia to the Virginia line.
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That GFS run has warning criteria snow for good chunks of Durham, Orange and Chatham counties along with Wake north of 540.
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What’s so bad about it?
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Yep. You don’t see the sleet returns though on the 3k like the 12k.
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It’s a joke, like throwing a damn dart.
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3k NAM is much colder and has snow much further south.
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That’s why I came in here to make that statement
