BullCityWx

It has some bone chilling runs lately.

No risk no reward, I figure.

You wanna be careful with the RAP because it's really bad that far out in it's run.

HRRR has decent snow into Hillsborough by 9z tomorrow, which sorta matches the NAM timing.

HRRR already has half a foot of snow on the ground in Shelby tomorrow morning at 8z. Looks very convective in nature.

Also if the NAM is right and we get heavy snow first thing tomorrow morning, it's a very real possibility we fend off the changeover. A couple of events that I am thinking that went similarly: February 1999 January 1987 November 2000

I think the most critical part of this storm for the N&W areas of the Triangle(I am speaking of Orange/Durham N of 40 and Wake N of 540) are between 1-5PM tomorrow. Can we: A. Hold off the changeover while we wait on the back end snow as modeled B. If we do changeover, limit what falls during the changeover If we can do either of those things, I think we could end up with a decent event. I think we stand to do okay in the morning. Snow ratios start increasing with the back end band up to 10:1 with some of the stuff I'm seeing.

Yeah, that isnt far at all. We honestly wanted to be more in town but couldnt bring ourselves to spend what you'd need to spend on a house in Trinity Park or Old West Durham. You're gonna do much better here than Stallings in general. if you want to do some research as to how things usually go up here, ABC11 has video on YouTube from the December 2018 storm.

Hey man! What part of north Durham? We’re in Greymoss.

Looks like I'm around half a foot on both NAMs. Now for it to just verify.

I think North of 73 in the metro is always a safe bet in these situations but this isnt your typical overrunning storm. We dont know yet where these bands will setup but it seems like the banding has focused on 85 from the SC border to the VA Border.

Charlotte deserves this if they get it.

The disagreement with the ensembles with some of these is stunning.

It ran fully on wxbell. Secondary max in NE NC and the Tidewater.

Check pls

And as a bengals fan.... I kid I kid

10.7” for RDU and basically nothing for south wake.

Kuchera maps showing over a foot for most of Durham. Wut.

Dude that shit was wild in this part of the state. 1.25” QPF.

Pulling for y’all as you know. Bring it home man.

SREF mean went from 0.4 to 2.6 at RDU.

Euro means look about the same. It'll be interesting to see the individual member QPF amounts.

Make that at least 2k feet.

Wont be a snowstorm for anyone lower than 1500 feet this run in my opinion.