BullCityWx

Cant draw it up better.

Control run has a...snowstorm for the entirety of the Carolinas. All of us, down to the GA/SC line by Savannah.

Doesnt look like much ensemble support for snow as far south as the 12z GFS had it.

There's at least four different threats on the GEFS.

Incoming on the para at 210.

Yeah, it's basically just the very bottom layer above freezing.

Probably a wet snow sounding for 2/7: Forecast Sounding Data for 36.02,-78.97 GFS_US 96 hour valid 12Z 07 Feb 2021 Station: 36.02,-78.97 Latitude: 36.02 Longitude: -78.97 Elevation: 128.93 Press Height Temp Dewpt Dir Spd M 1000.0 129 -9999.0 -9999.0 -9999 -9999 SFC 999.5 129 2.6 2.0 331 2 S 950.0 542 0.3 0.1 306 5 S 900.0 974 -0.9 -1.6 276 8 M 850.0 1432 -0.5 -2.9 253 18 S 800.0 1916 -1.6 -2.4 249 28 S 750.0 2428 -4.0 -4.4 243 32 M 700.0 2969 -6.6 -7.7 238 39 S 650.0 3545 -9.7 -10.6 237 49 S 600.0 4159 -12.9 -13.9 238 63 S 550.0 4817 -17.0 -21.5 232 77 M 500.0 5527 -21.0 -31.3 226 89 S 450.0 6296 -26.8 -37.4 224 97 M 400.0 7135 -31.7 -48.8 224 105 S 350.0 8071 -35.4 -57.9 225 110 M 300.0 9132 -40.8 -61.4 229 112 M 250.0 10349 -49.0 -64.0 232 113 M 200.0 11792 -54.5 -67.3 239 113 M 150.0 13616 -58.8 -76.8 245 104 M 100.0 16124 -63.7 -82.8 252 89

It's snowing at IGX by 7AM next Friday. It then proceeds to snow off and on until the following Tuesday.

The GFS is so close on Sunday.

What is the first rule of a major pattern change showing up on the models? it’s almost always too quick. We’ve got a lot of people who didn’t learn the fundamentals.

There's snow in the carolinas on day 7.

I don’t think you’re wrong. It gets tough after Valentine’s Day outside of some anomalously cold events.

Euro control at 18z:

And that for a model with a known warm bias.

GEM Ensembles seem to like Sunday quite a bit

Hey, it's snowing on the south side of CLT

I think north of I-40/I-85 is still very much in the game for this weekend.

I got nothing.

An increase of 5 at TDF and 2 at IGX from 0z.

26/49 EPS members at Chapel Hill have measurable snow on Sunday. 29/49 at Roxboro.

Nice! We went from .2 to 1.6 this run so that’s a big improvement.

There’s been a few Daytona 500 snowstorms.

GEFS bit hard on the super bowl Sunday event. 1.5” mean for most of the triangle.