BullCityWx

If the GFS was in a dumpster, not even the raccoons would be interested.

The good european stuff.

I think if you're along and N of 85 in the Triangle, we're still in the game for Saturday Night.

One thing I've noticed in NAM extracted data is a lot of locations are getting down to 32. Little things like that can change the game with this thing.

The EPS location of the TPV has been remarkably steady.

Honestly, the place I like the most not in the mountains or VA with this is from roughly @burrel2's house to Charlotte. They might have the best timing with regards to temps and precip.

Thanks man. I honestly do think it's fairly similar to the last setup, just a warm nose in the back third of the event.

The HRRR at this range with the last event had me getting 7" of snow. I got 2.5".

I dont know if anyone noticed but the 6z EPS has precip in NC as soon as hour 144 with temps across much of the state at or below freezing.

Interesting thing on the HRRR is the places that actually get heavy enough precip, it's snow.

Warm nose is around the 750mb layer here but it isnt egregious.

Forecast Sounding Data for 36.02,-79.02 NAM 42 hour valid 06Z 07 Feb 2021 Station: 36.02,-79.02 Latitude: 36.02 Longitude: -79.02 Elevation: 119.83 Press Height Temp Dewpt Dir Spd M 1000.0 120 -9999.0 -9999.0 -9999 -9999 SFC 998.1 120 0.6 0.1 26 9 S 950.0 530 -1.0 -1.5 51 23 S 900.0 961 -2.3 -3.1 90 26 M 850.0 1414 -2.9 -3.4 125 37 S 800.0 1896 -0.2 -0.4 159 49 S 750.0 2416 0.8 0.6 191 61 M 700.0 2970 -0.0 -0.3 218 70 S 650.0 3561 -3.3 -3.6 234 70 S 600.0 4189 -7.3 -7.7 236 70 S 550.0 4862 -11.9 -12.3 232 77 M 500.0 5585 -16.5 -16.8 226 83 S 450.0 6367 -22.8 -23.7 226 91 M 400.0 7219 -28.9 -37.8 225 99 S 350.0 8164 -34.1 -55.6 224 103 M 300.0 9223 -42.9 -59.6 225 106 M 250.0 10428 -51.4 -65.7 230 110 M 200.0 11849 -58.0 -71.6 239 118 M 150.0 13657 -58.3 -80.9 244 121 M 100.0 16174 -63.9 -87.0 247 73

Look, if you remember the last event, I think it's going to play out very similar except with more snow to the southwest. If you get under a good band, you've got a shot at a decent event. If you dont get under a band, you wont do as well.

Dude I've been wondering where you've been!

TSSN also shows up for TDF which also falls to 32 during the height.

Wow, TSSN showing up on extracted data for Burlington.

The Euro/Euro ENS are the globetrotters. The GFS is the generals.

EPS was almost cold enough for snow to be the dominant ptype.

F5 has a new 168 hour UKMET

LOL, the GFS extracted data is nuts for next Saturday. You just don’t see thirteen degrees and snow in this part of the world.

I can’t think of a single good analog, you’re right. If this thing evolves like the euro showed at 12z, it may be a once in a generation type deal.

I’m more scared of that than I am the earlier GFS solutions.

This run is literally just short of the 12z euro.

Yeah, I can deal with snow with temps around 15.

The Canadian ensembles